Hey Guys,
I have received a few reports that people cannot see the video in the post below? If you cannot see the video analysis in the previous post can you please reply to this post and let me know what operating system you’re running and what browser you’re using.
Below is what the post should look like if you do not see the video box there might be an issue I need to fix with the site.
Nick
Hi Guys,
It is that time of week again. here is the weekly analysis. Monday was a bank holiday so i didn’t trade….. big mistake, I missed out on two great trades. Ah well, that is trading for you. Hope you guys made some pips on the scalp line and constant line breaks.
Do not take any of these trades unless you have downloaded and read the NEW 2010 edition free e-Book explaining my method.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Guest blog post by Kris Matthews (http://tradeforexfundamentally.com)
You’ve probably heard the advice to not “chase the market” but also heard the advice to not “catch falling knives.” The former refers to getting into a trade after price has already started moving very fast, while the latter refers to trying to buy at what one may think is the bottom of the market. So what does one do- buy dips or buy when price is moving up? Why do the things in life with largest potential rewards have to be so contradictory?
I feel that both work, but you have to really understand the behavior of the market to be successful at either. Let’s talk about the first option: buying when the market moves up. If you’re using this strategy you want to make sure that there’s momentum behind the latest surge in price. If you see price trickling upward, that’s not as strong of an indication as seeing a full-bodied bullish candle push through a strong level of resistance, right? Well what if we could add another indicator that would boost your winning percentage and profits substantially, while giving you the increased certainty that you’re on the right side of the market?
The indicator I’m referring to is rather the reaction of price to economic news. If price is pushing upward through a strong resistance level due to a better than expected employment figure, that’s a lot more powerful than if price is moving due to some unknown reason. If we look at it in terms of the behavior of the market, if no news release is taking place, that price move could be just due to some temporary business transaction between an FX bank and its exporting customer. After the transaction is finished, the market is likely to come back down in price as selling pressure resumes and the upward move you saw was just a fake breakout. On the other hand, if the move is supported by a positive economic news release, you know that the move is supported by real sentiment and sustainable money flows.
If you want to boost your win rate and confidence in your trading I recommend that you combine price reaction to news with your technical analysis. If you see strong price moves with nice follow through penetrating a support/resistance level, look for a surprise in the released number versus the expected number. For example, if you see a breakout of GBP/USD above a very strong resistance level (e.g. a previous high on the daily chart), if there was a UK interest rate decision of 0.75% instead of 0.50% expected, you’re likely to see sustained upward movement for at least a day. The duration of the extended sentiment will vary with the importance of the news release. News releases are scheduled and can be viewed on news calendars such as that at Forexfactory.com The releases in red and orange have the highest impact on price action. The ones I consider when looking at price moves, in order of importance, are: interest rate decisions, GDP, Employment, Manufacturing/PMI, and Retail Sales.
I hope you consider combining the power of fundamental news with technical analysis in your forex trading. The more you can understand about the true behaviour and motivations of the market moving players in forex, the bigger and more profitable your edge is.
When I talked about updating Forex4Noobs I said a lot of changes were coming. So over the next few weeks I will be making some posts showing you some of the new features I have added to Forex4Noobs.
Let’s start with the calculator’s. With a lot of help from a member of Forex4Noobs we have built a cool Pip Value Calculator. There have been many times when I have asked myself “if I trade x number of lots how many dollars will I make per pip?”. I usually have to figure it out the hard way.
Not any more, now it is very easy! I just use the cool little forex4noobs pip calculator and bam! I know exactly how much money I will make per pip.
This pip value calculator is the best on the internet. All you need to do is enter in a pair and lot size. Other calculators out there expect you to put in much more information. This calculator does all the hard work for you. So enjoy!
Check it out here
Please leave a comment and let me know what you think!
Hi Guys,
Finally the weekly analysis is back. Sorry about the extended break, with the health concerns and the site redesign i did not have time to trade myself let alone do the weekly analysis. It’s back though, hope you like the sites new look.
Do not take any of these trades unless you have downloaded and read the NEW 2010 edition free e-Book explaining my method.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Hey Guys,
I will be updating the site over the next 2-3 days. The site has so much content so its a lengthy procedure and I need to run a lot of tests to ensure everything is working fine. If you notice dead links/pages or parts of the site that do not display correctly don’t worry. It is all part of the update procedure.
Just a few notes on the new design:
1. If you still use Internet Explorer 6 the site may look a little strange to you. This is because we no longer support Internet Explorer 6 (we do support every version of IE higher than that) ie6 was released almost 10 years ago. It is very old browser technology and it just doesn’t work well with new website design techniques. Most site designers either compromise on a sites quality for ie6 or spend hours developing work-arounds to make a site look right in ie6.
Our site statistics show only 5% of users still use ie6 so if you’re on of them upgrade to the latest version of internet explorer or preferably upgrade to Firefox or Google Chrome.
By the way if you’re an ie6 user many websites including YouTube and Facebook are planning to stop supporting ie6 in the next year. So it’s not only us.
2. We have some new sections! One of the most popular pages on this site is the Forex Clock. This has been moved to the new Forex Tools section. It was formerly placed in the Forex Plus section. So if you’re looking for the clock look for it in the Tools tab.
3. shift+refresh if the site looks strange it may simply be because your browser cache is storing old information. If you click your browsers refresh icon whilst holding down the shift key it basically tells your browser to completely refresh the site. So remember to do this if the page looks weird
Ok that’s about it. I am going to go upload the new site design files. You should see the first of the changes over the next few hours.
Guest blog post by Kris Matthews (http://tradeforexfundamentally.com)
Something that really humors me is the human tendency to search for the “holy grail,” the “magic bullet,” the “surefire strategy” that will bring them profits no matter what, and not require them to even think. However, when asked whether certain traders believe it exists, they say “No” on a conscious level but subconsciously are looking for that invincible, plug-and-play strategy. I don’t want to sound like I’m better than those people because I went through that too, and to this day, occasionally I still can’t resist reading about some latest hot-shot forex trading strategy some guru came out with that pulls in 1,000 pips per week—we’re all just wired to want to believe these things.
Nick mentions something in his ebook, “The NickB Method: Discover Advanced Price Action Analysis” that completely resonates with me:
“…systems are limited to the market conditions that spawned them. Systems do not adapt to changing market conditions.”
When you see the outrageous claims of making $50,000 in one month, the guru selling the course may not be lying to you—it may be true that the system performed so well—in that market period. Markets change and what may have worked very well in one environment may become obsolete in another very quickly. This still doesn’t stop certain price patterns from appearing, and may lead to addictions of putting on trades to get quick profits, just like drugs. As you can see, the market is ever changing and no “quick-fix” is going to work. The only way to win is to adapt to its changes.
After realizing that markets change and no static “holy grail” strategy will do, the next logical question is, “if I can’t win every single time how do I come close?” Let’s expand on the principle of adapting to the market in a more practical manner.
To adapt means that you recognize when the market is changing its behavior and when a given system or strategy is no longer likely to work, and replacing or adding to your system something that functions well in the new environment. Here are some clues that you can observe on a price chart for when this is happening:
Hey Guys,
Forex4noobs is growing up. The whole site has be redesigned and is looking better than ever (I will put up a pic below). There will be quite a few changes coming so I am going to list them briefly.
We also have heaps of new content from a whole range of free calculators coming out to new free education videos. We’re also changing up how things run here. From now on only professional traders will have blogs so we’re removing most of the current blogs. Pretty much only my blog and Fetor’s will remain.
I have decided to reach out and make some friends in the Forex world. I have picked out a few sites and blogs of people I consider real traders and invited them to post on my blog and participate in webinars. So there will be some new faces around here. Talented traders giving their view on the market. Starting with today there will be guest posts on this blog. A little alter I will put up a post by Kris Matthews a talented young fundamental analysis trader.
It was a tough decision but I have closed down a few of the Forex4Noobs blogs. From now on only professional traders will have blogs at Forex4Noobs. So that means Metalhawk’s blog and some others are closing down. I have asked Metalhawk to continue his journal in the forums if he would like (hope he does).
New videos, education, posts and tools.
Apart from being a full time Forex trader I am also an amateur site designer and coder. The more I learn about site the more awesome forex4noobs becomes. Our last total redesign was back in 2008 so it has been a long time coming. We’re keeping the ninja theme but everything else is changing. I have made the site easier to use and to navigate. Here are some pictures of the new design below
Hey guys,
sorry I have been away this week. Monday morning I woke up with a very very heavy and pounding heart beat. I went right to the doctor who ran a battery of tests. He said that it was nothing serious aside from very high blood pressure. I found that very strange since I am only 24 and I am generally a fit person and I have never been over weight. Anyway, my doc told me to lay off anything stressful and completely overhaul my diet. Turns out that even if you are fit and you eat bad food your blood pressure goes up. Scary ey? Looks like the years of pizza, kebabs and beer have taken their toll!
So I spent the past few days sorting out my situation. From getting a gym membership to buying heaps of fruit and veg and removing the stress. For that reason, I neglected doing the analysis or really trading at all this week. I had a good run the past few weeks so I do not mind missing a week. Will get back on the saddle next week. Sorry for skipping the analysis this week without notice. Health always comes first!
Waking up and having your heat beating so hard it shakes the bed is pretty scary. I thought I was having a heart attack! Anyway guys, all is ok and luckily it wasn’t serious. Hope you all made heaps of pips this week!
Catch you guys next week.
Nick
It happens from time to time guys.
I jumped into this one looking for 80 pips and it probably would have hit target. However, the UK emergency budget came out, and it detailed some very drastic measures to aid economic recovery. The measures basically revolve around squeezing even more money out of those who can least afford it. The budget release caused chaos and G/Y turned around quite quickly.
As I do with most major news releases I lowered my stop to about 35 pips. So luckily I didn’t take a huge hit.
Hopefully you guys got out ok. Let me know how this trade went for you.
