So yesterdays trade didn’t work out but why?
Well, to answer that question I had my super intelligent friend Albert Pipstein do several calculations and the results are in.
Yesterday’s trade did not work out because it was not a trade. See the break happened on the 3’rd last 4hr candle of the week and as a rule I do not trade the last three 4hr candles. This is not a new rule either as I have been saying this for the past year.
Why Don’t I Trade Them?
On Fridays a lot of large positions are being closed out to avoid them being held over the weekend. With positions closing all over the place the markets can become pretty erratic, so trading just isn’t safe. The markets get particularly erratic when London and N.Y. are open and the trading weeks about to end.
So What Do I Do?
When the 4th last 4hr candle of the week closes I switch off my charts and start enjoying my weekend. I suggest you do the same because trading Fridays, as you saw yesterday, can be
very dangerous.
October 12th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
You tried to catch a 50 pips move in market that moved 2500 pips with a 50 pips stop loss. What a great idea was that!!! You really don’t care about volatility???
October 12th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
@Mike:
I am disciplined and have weekly targets. I have met my overall yearly target this year already. You can criticize me all you want, at the end of they day I win consitently and have been doing so for over 4 years.
October 12th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
Nick, Why do you only focus on a 50 pip profit with the GBP/JPY? It’s move in both ways is tremendous. I could see if you were trading othe currency pairs with that strategy but this pair moves the most in the shortest time frame.
October 12th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
@Michael: I usually target 70 pips and trading the 4hr chart G/Y averages a 70 pip move before a reversal. My targets have been refined over the last few years. It roughly comes out to be 1/4 of the average daily range.
The past few weeks we have seen a lot of movement but that’s simply because of the economic crisis.
October 12th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
Nick,
Don’t you regret leaving so much money on the table recently? The GBP/JPY has had some hugh moves where it moved 500 pips a day. I know that you had a example of one of your trades on YouTube where you made $8000 on one trade. That trade was well over your 70 pip cut-off. Why was that different? Thank you in advance.
October 12th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
@Michael: Sometimes trades are different and I make exceptions…..
My method is simple, when there’s a trade I trade when there isn’t I do not trade. That is why I am successful, because I am not greedy and I only trade when a trade falls within my guidelines.
None of last week’s trades were viable based on my method. I do not just see big moves and jump in like a newbie in hopes of catching a good trade. I also do not mess with my money management just so I can make a few more pips
My trading comes down to one thing, discipline.
Also Michael, look at the current market conditions. All we are seeing is erratic movements spurred by the economic crisis. None of these moves fall within the realm of technical trading. They are all news based movements.
Beyond that, my life does not revolve around money. There are much more important things to me. I make more than enough each year that I do not have to spend every day of my life glued to my charts.
Oh and I did not leave money on the table. I did not miss any trades, there just weren’t any trades using my method.
“Let that which does not matter truly slide!”