This a pretty long trade vid -about 25 minutes, but I think it will be worth your time. I go through a losing trade and then transition into a wining trade as the market shifts. If you have comments or questions leave them below in the space provided.
This is a live trade I took today with the GBP/USD pair. The trade did ultimately meet our target, but I was unable to execute it as well as I should have and got stopped at break even before the trade went the distance. I went ahead and finished the analysis and discussion of the trade anyway. If you have comments or questions please leave them below in the space provided.
I’ve been hitting the Florida beaches over the last 2 weeks and will be gone one more week, so for those who have emailed me about my whereabouts, I was in Bonita Springs last week and will be heading to the east coast and will be in Daytona next week, but will be back trading the following week. With my kids out of school, summer is a down time for me, but I hope all of you are finding improved trading as the year progresses.
We are looking forward to finishing the year strong at forex4noobs, be sure to catch Nick’s recent posts about the site.
As far as trading goes, just keep working the plan. If you find yourself lost in the forest, do not panic, return to the basic principles of the market and move forward. When you get that disoriented feeling, do not keep adding on. More information will not magically make you trade better. Return to the source and hone the basics.
Take care.
I shot a quick video just using the H4 EUR/USD chart to point out a entry into the market if you have not already entered short with us on the EUR from this past week. This video shows simple analysis of price action and how to read the market. Remember that traders need reference points to trade from. If you are patient and use these reference points as well it will be of great advantage and give you a much needed edge.
If you have questions or comments leave them in the space below.
EUR/USD is at critical resistance levels providing us with a trade opportunity short. In this video I explain the option and why and how to read it. If the trade fails there are clear points of exit to manage risk in addition to reverse direction options upon failure. If you have questions or comments leave them in the space below.
This video is a follow up to this post:
http://www.forex4noobs.com/blogfet/gbpaud/gbpusd-trade-opportunity/
Several people had questions about my trend line placement. I attempt to explain the trend usage in the video and monitor the trade. It was not that successful of a trade, as I closed it out with minimal profit, but the price did eventually move to the target point on the lower support line where we wanted to exit.
If you have questions or comments leave them in the space below.
Here is a trade opportunity for anyone who might be trading G/U. The set up is quite clear. You have a choice to take the trade blind off the line or wait to see market action on lower frames. Off the line provides you with a better entry, but the draw down is seeing market action develop. Either choice would be ok, just recognize that one is more aggressive than the other and thus needs to be accounted for concerning risk.
The Xs mark stop points. I think the further one is a better choice as it is below a swing point, but if you want to tighten your risk then use the upper X.
The point of exit will be about 5260 to 5375 depending on market action. If the trade fails then we will trade the short side after trade fail as the market sets up on resistance. We follow the same basic rules of price action and market price setting in order to recover our loss and make profit.
A buy would be with trend/market sentiment and would be at a critical point where we would expect buyers to be. We have an over all Higher High/Higher Low movement denoting that buy positions are more likely to be successful at this time over sell positions on the H1 frame. We MUST note though that we are trading the H1 against the overall D1 selling sentiment. So we must manage our trade accordingly. If our position is successful then at the profit taking point around 5260 as I noted before you will want to look to sell as that point is the topside of D1 trend resistance.
Since the H1 move is counter trend to D1 then a break of the trend line is going to cause us to be far more concerned than a break of a H1 trend line that is moving with D1 trend. So if the trend line on H1 breaks and we see price closes lower then we may want to at that point exit before our stop is hit to reduce loss. Our stop is in place so that disaster can’t strike at the occurrence of some unknown element that may occur (our internet connection going out, freakish global news that causes panic, etc.), but if we see the market setting up to move in the other direction then manually taking our losing position off the board would be appropriate. We don’t want to be fearful though, we want a reason to take the position off, not just because the trend line breaks. If the trend line breaks but we get solid closes above the line then we are seeing price action that could very well keep buyers on the hook and move the price to our target. These are some things that one needs to take into account when evaluating price action and determining if you should close or not.
This is a good video showing how to read price action and market weakness or strength. Note the areas where trade opportunities occur. These are also turning points that will help you manage trades that you are already in, especially evaluating when to cut a losing trade in order to protect your capital.
If you have questions or comments please leave them in the space below.
The financial markets are an unforgiving environment. The vast majority of beginners and novice traders are chewed up and spit out. The market is replete with capital crushing odds that battle against you at every step. Thus, it is good to have an understanding of the market, a good understanding, an excellent understanding.
Your journey begins by making the decision to stick with it and to work at it. Look at learning to trade as a lifetime achievement. If you are not willing to read and study and examine charts and understand some economics then you really should stop trading. I’m to the point that I will not even dialogue with someone who is unwilling to pick up a trading/forex book and read it and study it. Self learning is just a bare minimum exercise as far as I’m concerned. I always have a trading book I’m reading; maybe about technical analysis or global markets or trading psychology.
I put together a list below of my short stack of trading books worth your time. These books will help you actually learn how to trade so that you can learn to trade and take the small odds that exist and use them to your advantage. You can not go wrong with any of these books.
Steven Nison
http://www.amazon.com/Japanese-Candlestick-Charting-Techniques-Second/dp/0735201811/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1277325273&sr=8-1
Al Brooks
http://www.amazon.com/Reading-Price-Charts-Bar-Technical/dp/0470443952/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1277325322&sr=1-1
Michael Parsons
http://www.amazon.com/Channel-Surfing-Channels-Profitable-Trading/dp/142083312X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1277325367&sr=1-1
Carl Futia
http://www.amazon.com/Art-Contrarian-Trading-Behavior-Financial/dp/0470325070/ref=pd_sim_b_1
Mark Douglas
http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Zone-Confidence-Discipline-Attitude/dp/0735201447/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1277325624&sr=1-1
Jason Zweig
http://www.amazon.com/Your-Money-Brain-Science-Neuroeconomics/dp/0743276698/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1277325817&sr=1-1
Ashraf Laidi
http://www.amazon.com/Currency-Trading-Intermarket-Analysis-Shifting/dp/0470226234/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1277325904&sr=1-1
Dirk Du Toit
http://www.bird-watching-in-lion-country.com/
Rob Booker
My Fairy God Trader (small ebook you can download online)
Finally, there is no get rich quick that exists in trading. You better be in for the long haul and expect to grind it out while in the learning process.
This is part 2 from the previous blog post. Though these are separate trades, I recommend watching Part 1 first because of the analysis I do in the first video that then leads to the second trade which is covered in this video.
This was a simple trade right off the line on a D1 chart.
Any comments or questions please leave them in the space below.
