Metalhawk’s Blog

Quick hit this week. As I said last week, I am not trading GBP/JPY for a few weeks, only USD/CAD.

1. Long @ 1.1635
2. Short @ 1.1442 (see note below)
3. Short @ 1.1219

Note: Some may wonder about this line when they see the 1.1416 level not too far below. However, the 1.1416 didn’t form nicely and looks more like a random spike that formed during a busy US news time frame. On the other hand, the 1.1442 level formed quite properly and I trust it more.

That’s it for now. Good luck this week.

What can I say, other than $#%^#$@$%$!#@%#%$%@#

On that cheerful note, I want to announce that for the time being, I am suspending my trading of GBP/JPY. It is just not behaving normally lately, so I will only trade USD/CAD until further notice.

Hi folks, last week was 1 win, 1 loss, for a total of -15 pips, simply because the loss was on GBP/JPY and the win on USD/CAD. The other way around and it would have been +15 pips. Not really indicative, as brought up by orpips in the comments section. He also brought up a good point, in that technically, if you’re risking the same percentage of your account on each trade, then it doesn’t matter if it’s a win/loss on GBP/JPY or USD/CAD (or any other pair you might be trading), it should be the same dollar amount, just each USD/CAD individual pip would be worth more than its GBP/JPY counterpart. The only problem is that when you don’t have a big trading account, you can’t make the pips match due to the restriction on partial lots with some brokers. Food for thought nonetheless. Thanks for that, man.

GPY/JPY: (targets: 50 pips S/L and T/P)
1. Long @ 160.36 (while not officially a double bounce, it bounced pretty much at the same level as the June 3rd candle. This did end up as a negative trade when it broke a week later, though. hahaha)

2. Short @ 154.89 (beautiful double-bounce. I am looking forward to this one)

- no trade @ 159.59 long (too close to the 160.36 line)

USD/CAD: (targets: 35 pips S/L and T/P)
1. Short @ 1.1219 (not an exact double bounce since the candle last week was 20 pips away, but close enough)
2. Short @ 1.0927 (again, not an exact double-bounce, but 13 pips away for the second drop is close enough)

- no trade @ 1.1447 long (I just don’t like the formation enough. it might be considered a weak-average line in my opinion)

Good luck this week.

But the result is still -15 pips total. Some will argue that the news release out of the UK is the culprit for the loss, but I don’t agree. The break occurred an hour after the Minutes and the unemployment numbers came out.

Anyway, my bad stretch continues, and so I can only hope that the worst my bad string, the better the good one down the road.

Edit: It’s 4 scalp lines, not 3.

I am still kinda MIA, but I am looking at my charts now. I am just a little busy with other things right now.

I should also mention that I did not take the 1.1289 break on USD/CAD, since it broke too early on Monday. Those who took it and held it for close to 4 hours (a big risk) got rewarded for it.

I am adding these scalp lines:

GBP/JPY:

- long @ 160.28 (if you can monitor this trade, you may want to keep an eye out for the 160.45/50 level)
- short @ 156.43

USD/CAD:

- long @ 1.1374 (5x 4h candles bouncing at, or very close to that level)
- short @ 1.1220

Hey folks, sorry if I haven’t gotten around to answering the backed up questions, but I was busy this week, mostly working on a new project that I hope will see the light of day soon enough. It’s Forex-related, and that’s all I will say for now.

As for the analysis, there’s not much to look at right now.

GBP/JPY:

1. Short @ 154.90

That’s it. Some may intend to trade the yearly high, but not me. I don’t usually like those unless they are a clear, clean scalp formation, and the 162.55 just doesn’t do it for me.

USD/CAD:

1. Long @ 1.1290
2. Short @ 1.0926 (this one was more or less confirmed by 2 close-enough bounces last week)
3. Short @ 1.0783 (2 bounces are better than 1 )

Just like last week, I don’t intend to start trading this pair until we get closer to the opening of the North American markets. That’s where most of the action is for USD/CAD, and so there may not always be enough momentum to carry breakouts this early in the European/British session (as we saw last week).

That’s it for now. I will post any additional lines that form through the week, and I still hope to catch up on those questions. Keep ‘em coming if you have any. I will get to it… eventually.

First, the line I said in the analysis I wouldn’t trade, 1.0927. The latest bounce nearby (12 pips away) makes it better. So short @ 1.0927.

Second, the reversal at 1.1289. I wouldn’t try to over-trade this one though (for those that like to let trades run for a while) with the minor reversal at 1.1353. It could act as resistance. So long @ 1.1289.

Nice way to come back, with a loss. While I’m away, a bunch of great breaks. I come back, and I get a dud. Sigh…

It was too early in the week for a pair that mostly trades between 12:00 and 22:00 GMT. After the break, despite the bulls’ best efforts there just wasn’t enough pressure to keep it going. I hope no one got in, as per my last post.

I don’t intend to take this trade if price breaks within the next couple of hours or so. This is not a great time for USD/CAD (it’s best from 8am to 5pm EST), and a break on a Monday morning this early may not be for the best. I will only set my order for this one before going to bed.

My GBP/JPY analysis this week is identical to Nick’s, so no need to elaborate much.

GBP/JPY

1. Long @ 160.47 (average-strong line)
2. Short @ 154.90 (average line)
3. Short @ 143.00 (strong enough line, helped by the psychological level)

USD/CAD

1. Long @ 1.1257 (average line)
2. Short @ 1.0783 (strong line, helped by the second bounce off that level last week)

I considered a short at 1.0926, but didn’t feel good enough about it. I suppose it’s a scalp line, but a rather weak one so I won’t trade it.

Good luck this week.

Sorry for the disappearing act. I didn’t mean to, or plan it, but it happened. You could call it a case of the blues, although it wasn’t quite that either. I just had the need to back away from my everyday routine, and it included Forex and everything associated with it, including this blog. I realize I should have left a message, so I apologize.

I did not take any trade for the last 2 weeks, did not even look at the charts much, so it’s almost like a fresh start for me, and I like it. I will be posting the analysis later, as well as another post that answers all the questions that have been asked for the last 3 weeks or so that I have not answered yet.

Cheers, and it feels good to be back. It really does.

Not much on the charts at the moment.

GBP/JPY

1. Short @ 143.00
2. Short @ 139.00

USD/CAD

1. Long @ 1.1823

That’s it right now. Lines might form throughout the week, we’ll see. Also, I am not trading today (Monday) due to Memorial Day in the US and Spring Bank Holiday in the UK.

As I said I would, I have looked at the ADR vs. trade success/failure for every GBP/JPY trade I have taken so far this year. And there’s not much conclusions to be taken from it, to be honest.

What I have done is calculate the Daily Range for every day since December 2008 (to have numbers to use in the 20-day ADR at the start of 2009). For every trade taken, I have looked at the Daily Range at the moment of the trade entry and the Daily Range if I included an additional 50 pips for the target, and compared both numbers to the 5, 10 and 20-day ADR.

Of the 23 GBP/JPY trades taken, on the 4h chart (there were 24 trades, but 1 trade doesn’t count, since it happened at 0:00 GMT, no time to have any Daily Range to compare to the ADR):

- For 20 trades, the Daily Range was below all 3 of the 5, 10 and 20-day ADR at the moment the trade was taken (15 positive, 5 negative = 75%)
- For 15 trades, the Daily Range + 50 pips target was below all 3 of the 5, 10 and 20-day ADR at the moment the trade was taken (11 positive, 4 negative = 73%)

- For 21 trades, the Daily Range was below at least 2 of the 5, 10 and 20-day ADR at the moment the trade was taken (16 positive, 5 negative = 76%)
- For 18 trades, the Daily Range +50 pips target was below at least 2 of the 5, 10 and 20-day ADR at the moment the trade was taken (14 positive, 4 negative = 78%)

- For 2 trades, the Daily Range was above all 3 of the 5, 10 and 20-day ADR at the moment the trade was taken (1 positive, 1 negative = 50%)
- For 4 trades, the Daily Range + 50 pips target was above all 3 of the 5, 10 and 20-day ADR at the moment the trade was taken (2 positive, 2 negative = 50%)

Took long enough. They can be seen by clicking the link at the top of the page.

As a side note, I find it interesting that half my pips were made in January, back when I was still trading USD/CAD. Hopefully things pick up once more now that I will be trading it again.