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EUR/USD F4N Chat Room Webcast 09.27.11

Posted by Fetor 2 Comments

In the chat room today I talked about 20 minutes on EUR/USD.  Raga happened to record it (so thanks to him for doing that), and since we had a recording I thought I would post it if anyone else might be interested in watching it.  The video is about 23 minutes in length and the file is 11.3 MB.

PLEASE NOTE:  Below you will find a link.  Download the ZIP file attached, unpack, and then when you are ready to watch, execute the “index” file.  All the attached files MUST be in the same folder from where you launch the index file or it will not work as the video and audio are separate parts and need to be in the same place for it to work.  The index file will open your browser and the video will run through your browser.  If  you have problems let me know, but if you do not follow the directions above there will be no pity for you.

EUR/USD Webcast Link September 27, 2011 (11.3 MB)

Enjoy, and if you have any questions or comments please write them in the space below.

AUD/USD Live Trade 09.15.11

Posted by Fetor 7 Comments

This video contains analysis leading up to a live trade I took on AUD/USD today.

If you have questions or comments please leave them in the space below.

EUR/USD Live Trade and Analysis 09.14.11

Posted by Fetor 5 Comments

Here is a vid from yesterday that I shot on EUR/USD.  I know that it is lengthy, but I think there is enough good information in here to be helpful for those willing to put in the time.  I tried to explain as much as possible in the process of following the price action on multiple time frames.  I edited it down from 45 minutes, but this is as short as I could make it without losing the “meat” of the video.  Stick around for the end as I do take two trades, explain them and follow the action.  The US session, which this video covers, was dismal overall so there is not much follow through with price, but there is some good content here.

If you have questions or comments please leave them in the space below and I’ll be happy to answer them.

News Sources

Posted by Fetor 3 Comments

This post is actually from the comments section from a previous post.  Someone asked me about the news sources I use and I listed all of this there.  I thought maybe this would better server the larger community as a formal post.

Below are the sources I use. They are pretty much industry standard print sources so most people reading the news will have these sources on their list.  It’s impossible to read everything out there so I’ve tried to find sound sources that give a good enough picture of what is happening. Just as you can become too technical in your technical trading so I believe you can become too technical in your fundamental analysis. It’s best to focus on the news the majority are paying attention to rather than more obscure pieces of information, the same as technical analysis, paying attention to the lines and prices and patterns the majority would be watching and dismissing obscure lines and patterns. If you find good resources on your search be sure to let us know!

Print Media:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/currencies/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/worldwide/

http://www.ft.com/intl/markets/currencies

http://www.ft.com/intl/global-economy

http://online.wsj.com/public/page/news-currency-currencies-trading.html?mod=WSJ_topnav_na_markets

https://mninews.deutsche-boerse.com/

http://www.zerohedge.com/

http://www.forexfactory.com/ (I’ve found FF news section to be handy for catching other analyst insights and tips. Just remember that most of the analysts are paid to be analysts and don’t actually trade. Personally, mainstream sources like cable networks I would stay away from.)

General World and Domestic News:
http://www.drudgereport.com/ (I only use this for general global and US domestic news, since I live in the US, and I like it because it’s in bullet format so I can run through the headlines. It’s not designed for anything economic.)

Charting:
http://www.freestockcharts.com/ (This is a very handy tool for comparing various markets. The overlay feature is nice to see multiple markets on the same chart.)

News:
http://talking-forex.com/ (I use this for real time audio feed as well as their print feed. Talking Forex is the same real time feed as professional RANsquawk users http://www.ransquawk.com. For the money it is a great value imo. I listen to this all day when I’m trading and when I have to step away I can go over the print feed to catch up on anything missed. Talking Forex gives no Asia news, but you can get enough of that through print media because who really wants to trade the Asian session anyway?)
https://www.tradethenews.com/
http://www.forexfactory.com/ (gives a basic outline of upcoming releases and past numbers)

Using Your Capital To Your Advantage

Posted by Fetor 3 Comments

I responded to a PM in the forums with some comments about scaling into and out of trades.  I’m putting that here in a blog article in order to get you to think about how to use your capital to maximize your profits, but in addition to that to maybe give you “permission” to do so if you are stuck in a certain way of thinking.

This is what I wrote (in italics) in my PM and then below it I’ll try to expound a bit further:

If you are able to risk more than 1 mini lot I would do so, the reason being is it will allow you to make better progress if you learn how to take profit and manage a trade while also catching the runners. If you can trade at least 2 minis then do so. Take profit along the way and then work at letting your remaining lot run. This will help you discipline yourself to stay in the market in order to let your profits run. A new trader problem is taking profits off the board too soon and letting losers run against you. Flip that equation around. You can scale into and out of trades in order to manage risk. This is just a simple example: if you have two lots and price moves against you 30 pips, then take one off and hang onto the other, if it moves against you further then you’ll have to cut it loose, but if it falls back in line and moves your way you can always add back on as the trade develops. There is a skill in scaling in and out of trades to manage risk, work at these things in order to minimize your losses and maximize your gains. Sometimes you may want to take just 1 lot to get a feel for the position, then do so, sometimes you don’t see the trade until money is on the line, until you place your bet, as things develop scale in on the momentum, when it runs 30-50 take that one off and leave the original. These are just some examples of various ways you can work with your capital in order to make the market work for you, but you have to do this inside your understanding of technical analysis and the fundamentals. For example, today I took an e/u short. I took my standard position and the trade moved in my direction, dropped hard below support and was showing signs of continuation. As I was listening to the news wire, news came through that was going to push the price lower, as it reacted with the momentum in place, I pressed my position and leveraged up, let it run 30 pips and then I took that position off while leaving the original on. The original went another 30 and I closed at a logical profit taking point. Price continued hard, closed below support again, pulled back to now resistance and I took another standard position short with the selling and took that for another 50. These are just examples of learning to manage the trade, taking profit at the right times, but also giving yourself opportunity to let your winning positions profit for you longer term.  On the other side of things I was in a losing trade with USD/JPY that I was able to scale out of  and minimize my loss so that when I did score my winning trade the gap between my winner and my loser was larger thus growing my account more.

First of all, if you are only able to trade one lot then this is not going to help you right now.  But if you are trading one mini and your broker offers micro, then drop down to micros so you can trade multiple lots.  If you are trading one standard then drop to minis so you can trade multiple lots.  In my opinion you will be the better for it in the long run.  The point is to leverage down to low levels so that you can minimize those losses while taking advantage of profit opportunities.  This will also reduce your stress as the market develops because most of the time our timing is off.

Assuming you have multiple lots to trade it is always best to start at your lowest to moderate level of leverage especially if you are a new trader.  Reason through and take your position and when you do there is nothing wrong with taking an exploratory position (not based on a flip of a coin), but exploratory in the sense of low leverage.  The reason being is that one of the most difficult things to master is timing and even when you get better at timing the majority of the time the market moves against you a bit or ranges on you unexpectedly for the next 1-2 hours.  Taking into account this reality allows you to alot for timing issues and thus if your timing is off which most of the time it is you are managing a trade at the lowest possible leverage.  You’ll find that little position changes the psychology of your observation and thus can aid you in making better choices as the trade progresses.  If the price moves against you, let’s say if you were in a short and the price moved higher to a point of resistance above, you have the option of taking the smaller loss or scaling in (leveraging up), without going outside money management percentages.  This will also give you a better price.  Too many people don’t understand that if you are going to scale up a losing position you must already be way below your money management threshold!  Understand the risks of leveraging up a loser.  Do not over-leverage.  These strategies are to maximize your capital not exploit it and destroy it.  It is always better to “press your trade” and leverage up your gains.   If the price moves in your favor, or begins to set up in your favor then you can leverage up to a standard position of risk, depending on your available capital, in order to maximize your profit.  If you are not sure if it is a good time to leverage up then don’t, just leave it, profit is still profit and it won’t be long before the market gives you an opportunity.  If that opportunity doesn’t come to leverage up or you just can’t seem to pull the trigger, again, don’t worry about it, you still have landed a profitable trade.  As you exit your trade you can scale out by taking part of the position off at a profit taking point while leaving the other position on for further movement, maybe over the course of several days.  If this does occur, and you score a runner, you can leverage in and out of the original trade for more profit on smaller time frame moves using the original position as hedge for any loss.  This is a great place to be in, in that you are able to wait with incredible patience for the best possible entries for any additional profit opportunities because you are trading on the back of an established winning position.

In the reverse, you can scale out of trades as price moves against you.  While it is always better to leverage up than leverage down, it is possible and better to manage risk by leveraging down than completely removing yourself from the market; assuming of course that you are not being reckless and holding a trade beyond it’s technical indications such as S/R points of interest, etc.  Remember, the point is to reduce the loss, but give yourself an opportunity to win.  By scaling out you are lowing your risk, but keeping yourself in the trade and giving breathing room upon the event that it moves in your direction at which time you can manage it accordingly or leverage back in at appropriate points of interest based on techincal analysis or market momentum.

These are some ways you can use your capital to maximize profit on market moves while keeping your losses as low as possible.

One last thing, if you would like to comment below please do so, but do not make a comment about how this is irresponsible money management.  Everything I said above is in the confines of staying inside proper percentages of risk, and if you follow some simple guidelines you’ll find yourself better managing your trades and keeping (and making) more of your money.  If you are over-leveraging with multiple lots and killing your account, don’t come crying to me, (or Nick) as you have been warned (with a smile).

 

 

Currencies and News

Posted by Fetor 4 Comments

I often get questions about trading news.  People ask how do you handle news, when do you trade news, do you enter before, during, after, do you straddle, etc.?  When I started trading 6 years ago I was inundated by all the same technical systems and concepts you have been hit with.  There is always a new technical system or method being developed or rehashed.  Naturally I spent a lot of time focusing on technicals and found success in following price action and moving with the market movers when they dump their money into the market.  But there was this itching I still had for more understanding.  A little over a year ago I began to move toward the fundamental aspects of the market; not to become a fundamental trader but to help me better understand what I was seeing technically.  Sometimes things would happen while I was in a technically sound trade that left me scratching my head.  Everyday I trade technically all the way down to M5 charts and if you watch any of my videos or posts on lower frame trading you’ll see it gets quite technical and sometimes feels like doing surgery.  This technical approach is the foundation for what I do each day, but I have found that an understanding of the fundamentals has added another dimension to the decision making process. . .a positive one.

An example from this week.  I actively trade the EUR/USD, but I trade other pairs as well, such as USD/CAD, GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD, USD/CHF, and others.  Considering the current conditions between the Euro Zone (specifically Greece) and the US economy it has made the EUR/USD pair a little more difficult to trade.  There have been some great moves, but the news from these respective economies has created more confusion to buy or sell.  In light of this I moved to the EUR/CHF, but the reason was not technical, but fundamental.  Taking into account the historic nature of the CHF as a haven currency coupled with the healthy news coming from the Swiss economy the gap between the weakness of the Euro and the strength of the CHF widened.  The gap fundamentally between the EUR/CHF was much wider than the gap between EUR/USD.  So poor Euro Zone news would have lesser effect on a weakened dollar whereas poor EUR news compared to the the CHF would be magnified.  Thus we see the relationship between the “pairings”.  The same news affects different pairs differently.  Consequently, I entered a trade short on EUR/CHF (using Technicals and Price Action to make my entry) that ended up moving 270 pips in about 12 hours (and if you look at it, it was a violent 12-14 hours of selling: Date was June 1 – 3AM EST).  On that same day the EUR/USD ranged about 150 pips so I’m not suggesting money couldn’t be made on the EUR/USD, but the nature of the two pairs currently was making it more difficult than moving to a pair with a greater divergence.

Coming back to my opening thoughts about the news.  At a very basic level, the very least you should be doing as a trader is making yourself aware of news releases, but taking things a step further may bring you some insight as to assessing the sentiment of the market and the likelihood of S/R and trend lines to hold or break.  And when I say likelihood, I’m just talking about the same old supply and demand I always talk about.  At the end of the day Price Action and S/R are king.

Another example from this week was a trade I took on EUR/USD after NFPs and Unemployment came out for the US.  Clearly the numbers were bad, and at first the market’s reaction was volatile.   The EUR sold off to technical levels and then buyers rallied off the reports at an inexpensive price below.  As I watched this take place I waited and watched the technical levels while also knowing the fundamental outlook for the US over the previous days in addition to the positive leaning news coming out of the Euro Zone as to how to handle Greece’s debt.  Once the market stabilized I took a long position knowing that between the price action and the fundamentals that I pretty much could have sold the dollar anywhere that day and made money.  I set a reasonable out and took my profit, and I did the same thing with the USD/JPY, netting between the two a little over 60 pips.

So, I just wanted to share some thoughts that have been a little over a year in the making, but also to help address some of these questions I get about news and how to trade the news.  News releases cannot be traded in a vacuum, but must be processed in a larger picture.  If you just want to trade technically, you can do so, it’s the one thing the market movers cannot hide from you and that is the price, but I’ve found in the process of learning to be a better quality trader, a fundamental understanding, though not completely necessary, is very helpful.

Let me close by saying this because I’m sure this will be a question of more than one person.  All of my entries are technical entries, based on all the technical rules and strategies I’ve written about in my blog and in the F4N forums.  Nothing has changed in that regard, nor will it change.  Taking a  position off fundamentals and trading fundamentally is a process I am not interested in because of the subjectivity and the potential need for sizable stops and risk.  I absolutely am convinced that you must pay close attention to S/R (areas where demand and supply are, the places where buyers and sellers are) (see this article: Where To Put Your Roach Motels), and trend lines and price action.  Technical trading helps contain the price to give us lower risk, higher probability entries.  Where the news and fundamental economics moves the price so Technical Analysis contains the price and reigns in the chaos so we can trade the support and resistance areas.

 

EUR/USD Back to Back Live Trades 05.09.11

Posted by Fetor 13 Comments

In this video I recorded two back to back shorts on e/u.  I work through the various time frames and show how to work them together in conjunction with the price action.

If you have any questions or comments please leave them in the space below.

Will Be Back Blogging Soon. . .

Posted by Fetor 11 Comments

I have not posted in some time because my father in-law has been in the hospital for the past 40 days, many of which has been spent in the ICU. Out of those past 40 days my family has been at the hospital for about 30 of them. As a result I have not prepared any videos, etc. for posting. If you follow my blog I just wanted to give you an explanation of where I’ve been. I hope to be back very soon as things seem to be taking a turn for the better. I have been trading some along the way and have spent some time in the chat room during the US session. If you have not tried the chat room I’d encourage you to give it a go. Thanks for your patience.

USD/JPY Follow Up

Posted by Fetor 1 Comment

This is a follow up to my previous post about USD/JPY. We were looking at the outside bar on the daily chart as a signal for trades at the top and bottom of the range. An outside bar serves us well for these types of trades in that it most often creates a single session range since during that session both the bulls and bears had control of the market. We see that price followed through nicely upon the final break so I hope you had alarms set and were watching this develop to catch the run up. USD/JPY tends to be a slower pair so it is nice to practice on as your hourly moves generally are not too dramatic so the degree of risk is lowered.

When price broke higher over 82.46 there were some signs that it was going to struggle a bit, and we would expect that since we know that the market tends to first contain the price in a range (area) before it breaks free. In the image below we had a strong move higher (relative to USD/JPY typical movement) and then you’ll note a few numbers (in red) that I added. Through this process don’t lose sight of your HL/HH price movement. This movement is where the market is setting price and showing us the swing points and critical prices so we know where to cut a losing trade loose so we don’t get caught letting a loser run. If you are unfamiliar with the basic price movement in the market go through my section Charting for Noobs.

1. Here you see an inside bar form after the push higher.

2. Here you see a second inside bar form making that two in a row as price is consolidating upon decreasing demand. These two inside bars are significant when coupled with the next bar.

3. Here we see price drop below the near term range and close on it’s low so there was selling through the whole session. At this point if you were long you would expect some pull back. You may want to exit and wait to see what happens then re-enter or hold through the pull back realizing that your breaking point is the trend line running up from 81.10 through 81.76. The break higher out of the daily outside bar we would expect to cause demand though price may pull back on the hesitation of buyers to initially buy higher. But the overall demand is there keeping buyers in the market on the pullbacks on lower frames.

4. At this point we have an additional move higher and as you can see this candle stands out. We see that the open and low are the same and the high and the close are the same. This action with the higher move would draw in more buyers to start to buy higher. Price pulls back a bit and hesitates off of the initial move higher, but there is no supply below, price creeps up and then news finishes the job 2.5 hours later and we are off to the races.

If you are following this in real time pay attention to these things I point out here and trust that the price action is telling you something about the sentiment of traders and whether the bulls or bears are interested. At the end of the day it’s a probability game, but these things are helpful in assessing the sentiment to help our probability of being right.

Questions or comments? Leave them in the space below.