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GBP/USD Trade Opportunity

Posted by Fetor 14 Comments

Here is a trade opportunity for anyone who might be trading G/U. The set up is quite clear. You have a choice to take the trade blind off the line or wait to see market action on lower frames. Off the line provides you with a better entry, but the draw down is seeing market action develop. Either choice would be ok, just recognize that one is more aggressive than the other and thus needs to be accounted for concerning risk.

The Xs mark stop points. I think the further one is a better choice as it is below a swing point, but if you want to tighten your risk then use the upper X.

The point of exit will be about 5260 to 5375 depending on market action. If the trade fails then we will trade the short side after trade fail as the market sets up on resistance. We follow the same basic rules of price action and market price setting in order to recover our loss and make profit.

A buy would be with trend/market sentiment and would be at a critical point where we would expect buyers to be. We have an over all Higher High/Higher Low movement denoting that buy positions are more likely to be successful at this time over sell positions on the H1 frame. We MUST note though that we are trading the H1 against the overall D1 selling sentiment. So we must manage our trade accordingly. If our position is successful then at the profit taking point around 5260 as I noted before you will want to look to sell as that point is the topside of D1 trend resistance.

Since the H1 move is counter trend to D1 then a break of the trend line is going to cause us to be far more concerned than a break of a H1 trend line that is moving with D1 trend. So if the trend line on H1 breaks and we see price closes lower then we may want to at that point exit before our stop is hit to reduce loss. Our stop is in place so that disaster can’t strike at the occurrence of some unknown element that may occur (our internet connection going out, freakish global news that causes panic, etc.), but if we see the market setting up to move in the other direction then manually taking our losing position off the board would be appropriate. We don’t want to be fearful though, we want a reason to take the position off, not just because the trend line breaks. If the trend line breaks but we get solid closes above the line then we are seeing price action that could very well keep buyers on the hook and move the price to our target. These are some things that one needs to take into account when evaluating price action and determining if you should close or not.

Related posts:

  1. Identifying Changes in Sentiment – Part 3
  2. Identifying Changes In Sentiment – Part 2
  3. Identifying Changes In Sentiment
  4. GBPJPY 3.1.09 Week Update 1
  5. GBP/JPY Potential Scenarios 1.25.09
  • Cyprusman

    Good setup, I have this area marked, roughly 50% retracement of the last move so if it all ties in….

  • pipranger

    Thanks Fetor

  • kibed83

    Hi fetor,

    Much appreciated setup. Am already in this trade.
    I have reviewing keenly your resent trade vids and have seen how you draw treadlines hypothetically along a channel which are perceived as default by traders.

    Please shed some light on the following;The Tendline marked xx touching 1.4870 & 1.5080 was it drawn hypothetically?. if so why.

    Cheers

    • http://www.forex4noobs.com/blogfet/ Fetor

      kibed83,

      No, I did not draw it hypothetically. I was drawing it off the swing. I’m shooting a video on it at present and will post when this trade finishes. See my response to Mike Tye.

      -Fetor

  • Mike Tye

    I noticed the trend/channel on this pair but would have thought it would be better for it to hit the main trendline. Your ‘minor’ trendline only connects 2 points, so what makes this one a trendline, rather than joining up the first 1.5084 bounce?
    I’m not criticising in any way, just looking to learn :)

    • http://www.forex4noobs.com/blogfet/ Fetor

      Mike Tye,

      No problem, I understand your question. I am using price turning points to mark possible trend moving lines. I don’t count on 3, 2 is enough for me if the points are swing points. The become markers, ie reference points, for traders to make decisions about whether to sell or buy based on the price action. I’m recording a video as a follow up to this post. When the trade is done I will post it and it should answer some of your questions. If it does not be sure to let me know and we can discuss things further.

      -Fetor

  • Art

    Interesting you’re going against the current trend down but going with the longer trend line up setting Stop Loss break of trend line.

    You’ve essentially have good set ups either way. If your long & price breaks & closes below trend line then you can close at a loss & go short to catch the move down.

    • http://www.forex4noobs.com/blogfet/ Fetor

      Art,

      Yes, that is true. Critical areas become price turning points and can be good places for recovery of failed trades. Note the answer I gave to Mugged. It deals with your comments above.

      -Fetor

  • Mugged

    Fetor,

    From looking at the 1h and 4h charts it looks like buyers have failed to hold onto the trend line. Since the area seems to be broken I would expect the next logical place for support to be the trend line at ~ 1.5025
    What are your thoughts on the recent price action?

    Thanks

    • http://www.forex4noobs.com/blogfet/ Fetor

      Mugged,

      I closed my long position with -8 pips and took a short position on the bottom side of the trend line. That is the position I currently hold. I am shooting a video on it and will post it when the trade is finished. It should answer all of your questions.

      -Fetor

  • Jeff13

    Hi Fetor,

    Glad to hear you are preparing a video as I have a host of questions – I’ll wait patiently, as I’m sure it will answer most of them.

    Jeff

  • Mike Tye

    I decided to go long at 1.50942, took profit at 1.51465 (+53 pips) then just closed the rest for 1.51948 (+100 pips) as, in my opinioin, its getting into a bit of resistance on the 30M and 76.4 pips in 6 hours isn’t particularly bad! It might well run on for hundreds more pips but profit is profit in my book :)

    http://i233.photobucket.com/albums/ee261/MikeyTMike/FX/75pipsoncable.jpg

    • http://www.forex4noobs.com/blogfet/ Fetor

      Mike,

      Well done. Excellent place to take a long position. Your entry was at the bottom of the D1 range which is seen much more clearly on the H1. Those are good places to wait for entry as they provide the best odds with the lowest risk. If your trade didn’t work you had a good out with minimal loss and an opportunity to move with the market in the other direction if the price action showed further selling. Good job.

      -Fetor

  • Mike Tye

    Thanks but I do have a pretty good teacher ;) Thats what I loved about this trade, my SL was 20 pips so over 3:1 R:R ratio!