Forex Trading Analysis|Signals for GBP|JPY (Wk Strt 04|05|08)

Posted by Nick 35 Comments

Hey Guys,

Before I get into the analysis I want to let everybody know about the FREE WEBINAR I will be hosting on Wednesday the 21st of May at 6pm U.S. E.S.T (N.Y. time). The webinar will run for about 3 hours, in it I will discuss my trading method in detail, and then I will have two guest speakers talk about their trading. There will be a Q&A session with me for about an hour or so during which you can ask me questions about my trading. I will not release the guest speakers names yet but I will let you know at least a week before the webinar. To sign-up all you have to do is click on the link below and put your emails address and name on the form on that page. On the day of the webinar a few hours before it starts I will send you an email with the link and instructions on how to enter the chat room. We have only 300 spots available so if you want to attend the webinar

(sorry sign-up is now closed)

Ok onto the weekly analysis, this week we have 4 good S+R lines 2 shorts, 2 longs. For the most part it is exactly the same as last week except this week I will be using the 204.90 line for a short. Anyway for a more detailed explanation watch the video below:

Tags: forex, forex analysis, forex profit, forex trading, forex trading education, free forex education, free forex signals, gbp/jpy, plan, strt, trade update, weekly analysis

Nickolaj

Hello Nick, I have one more stupid question.I can`t see where 210.56 formed. In fact I see it but it is in 10 July 2007. Maybe I`m missing something important. Thanks for the analysis.
dogbaron

Great stuff Nick. This method is too good.

Ta.
admin

I have had the line on my chart for years, in Feb it may not have been the best line but we saw a few bounces.
O’Zeeke

Thanks again Nick , looking forward to some pips this week. Good luck everyone
willj

thanks Nick, hope its a good week for all of us.
Dollah

Thanks Nick. I look foward for next Analysis/Signals.
Helen

Thanks once again for the time you take to put this together for us. It is much appreciated.
Afzal Arshad

Hey Nick, thanks for the analysis once again. I have got a question, as it is Monday and there are public holidays in both the UK and Japan, will you still trade today if the lines are broken?
kathy

hi Nick

would you consider 205.50 a new scalp line that’s formed? also is 208.3 considered a scalp line? i don’t think it is because it wasn’t a distinct swing point but i’m not sure. thanks
Mark

Hey Nick,
Thanks for the info as usual! I got in a little late when that 204.90 line broke today (07 May) but I was still able to make 40pips. Please keep it up, and thanks for sharing your knowledge! Cheers, Mark
Mike

Got in at 204.90. Got out with 50 pips, but I thought it would be interesting to use this as a normal trade and left second half opened. Interesting to see what will happen.

Have a great day!
Magster

Hi Nick!

I just closed my trade, from your analysis, with +71 pips.

Magster
Mark

Well, I lost 30 of my 40 pips on that first new candle that broke the 204.90 line after the one that I took my profit. I made a rookie mistake of thinking the slightly bullish candle with the long wick was indicating a reversal, and about 4 pips positive into the next candle I executed a trade thinking it would go up, only to watch it retrace and plummet down to the 203.33 line. I then did my research on scalping subsequent to that trade, and learned that I should have waited till it went bullish past the 204.90 line to confirm the reversal. Lesson learned, I will stick to Nick’s recommendations, and venture out when I’m more seasoned. Thanks again for all the work you put into this great site Nick and not being a scam artist like it seems everyone else online with regards to Forex is.
Mike

Just woke up amd no surprise my second half left opend, closed while I did my 4 hour sleep with 120 pips profit. Let’s see what happens today!!!

Everybody have a nice day!
ibeawuchi samuel

I want to thank Nick for the great recommendations he gives on weekly basis on the GBP/JPY pair.This morning,I went short on this pair at 203.30 as he suggested and made 70 full pips.
I think you are one of the best out there and I’ll sure recommend this site to my fellow Nigerians who are forex traders.
Thanks again.
Nancy

Hi Nick,

Your analysis was ok and good for Gyp/Jyp, but I need a follow up on it. Pls notify me.
kvazar

short @203.3
closed first half @202.6
rest hit @ be
+70 on the whole trade
O’Zeeke

took the 205.50 scalp for 50 and the 203.33 for 70 pips. 120 for the week so i get off early this week. Thank you Nick for all that you do to help us be better traders.
Hilton

Hi Everyone and Nick…

I’m glad to see that there are quite a few people doing well in the market. I did not trade the Gbp/Jpy this week at all due to the fact that I was trading the Gbp/Usd. I pulled the Gbp/Usd by the bootstraps and came out with 182 pips profit(after spread mind you) in the Gbp/Usd pair last week!!

I wanted to trade the gbp/jpy badly, but I wasn’t going to become undisciplined and mess up my gbp/usd trades just to trade another pair. I was on the roll and I just finished it up.

Now, this week, so far I have made 127 pips on the gbp/usd and one more trading day to go. So, I could hit the 150 to 170 pip level this week for another great trading week on the gbp/usd pair.

Once again, I wanted to trade the gbp/jpy but I was already in trades on the gbp/usd so I was not going to get greedy and mess up my strategy on my gbp/usd trades.

Well, good luck to everyone and “may the pips be with you”(smiling)…

hilton
kathy

hilton,

would you consider starting a thread to discuss your s/r levels? i know i’d like to see how you go about setting them and compare it to nick. maybe you’re one of the guest speakers at the webinar.
Mike

I have one question for Nick. Althogh your trades are very precise you do not seem to take in consideration things like trend lines that would give you the idea of the actual trend and the brake of a trend line in my opinion is way more segnificant than the brake of a s/r line that on geppy at least are quite a few.
And another interesting thing is that you do not seem to care about the SMA or EMA which in my opinion are vital in giving you the direction of a trend. This week major move in my opinion, again was caused by the brake of 200 SMA on 4h chart.

Best regards, Mike!

PS: I hope you will take what I wrote above simply as discussion from trader to trader, with no shadow of criticism! Again, I say you are very good in what you do, but I personlly think that there are things that might give us all “more satisfaction”.
admin

Mike »

A trend line is simply an arbitrarily defined connection between two or more points. There can be millions of different trend lines for any one currency pair. Traders place trend lines in hope that they are placing the same one as everybody else. If the trend line they place happens to be different to the general consensus it could be useless. Or it could also be useful since there are so many variations that a lot are very similar. The point is though that trend lines are only useful only because other traders use them. So you are basically placing a line and hoping it is in the same general area everybody else has their line. Personally I do not like to take trades based on hope.

EMA’s and SMA’s are just visual representations of simple equations that show you what you can already see on the charts. They are really not that useful, they can help spot trends after they happen and they can help spot dying trends after they die. If you look at the 200 SMA objectively and actually tally the results of breaks past the line you will see that it is pretty random. If you look at the equations behind the lines you will see why it does what it does and why it seems to spark off huge moves. The reality is that the 200 does nothing, it just gives you the illusion of usefulness. You need to look at it objectively though; if you concentrate only on the breaks it does look useful. I use to think SMA’s worked but when I looked at the math I saw the reality of SMA’s.

All that aside I think simplicity is perfection. Over complicating something that works very well is counterproductive. You said it yourself my method is very precise. Why would I take something that already works and make it more complex? My method has been making me a lot of money consistently for 4 years. That is more that can be said for 99% of the trading methods out there. At the end of the day I am happy with the performance of my method. When I think about going back to the overcomplicated crap I tried 2 years ago I get shivers.

I am going to post this on the forum too….
Hilton

Hey Yall and to Kathy,

Well, today, friday, I got 18 pips. This trade lasted for about an hour. I didn’t trade much after that because I wanted to go to Wakiki Beach and relax here in hawaii.

In any case, I got 145 pips profit for the week and am satisfied(although I came 5 pips shy of the 150 pips I predicted I would have..but oh well…).

To reply to Kathy’s question about starting another through about the S/R Level. Kathy baby, all I can say is that I don’t do anything different than what Nick has taught! I have a great thing for retracements and that is the only thing I add to Nicks technique. For example if nick says that the market will flush down after hitting 209.10 level on the gbp/jpy, what I do is what until that happens, then wait for a retracement, on a smaller time frame and then SELL the hell out of the market.

I do the same thing with the Gbp/Usd though.

Like I said, Nick has made me alot of money and I trust his judgement, along with my own experiences in the market.

By the way, Nick is absolutely correct when he states that the “Trendlines” are illusions of what is made out to be correct. The fact of the market is, the market does two things very well:

1) The market always retraces due to “smart money” taking profits..which is a good opportunity to either buy or sell

2) The market always hits a momentum period during a major trend on ALL time frames.

The hardest thing about trading is that, like Nick says, 99% of the loosers try to do the most complicated things and wound up loosing big time. I went through that phase and I’m sure Nick has also.

Keep it simple. Humans tend to want to do the most complicated things when things are simple. And, in the market, simple is better….

Have a great weekend Kathy and all the rest,

hilton
kathy

thanks Hilton

what i was asking is to start a thread to discuss what the s/r levels are on the cable. i’m working on setting my own levels so i thought it’d be fun to start a thread doing the same for the cable. nick does the gj. i like to look at my charts on the weekend so i have my levels before his analysis, that way i can compare.

of course i’m completely jealous of you being in Hawaii. hopefully we’ll get there in a couple of years when all the kids are off to college.
Speddoch

Hi

First post on this informative and interesting site.
Speddoch

Hi

First post on this informative and interesting site. Never thought I would consider
trading GBP/JPY with wide spreads!

Didn’t take the break of 202.30 as away from desk. However
after it bounced from Pivot S2 support (202.50) sold a break of that
support down to following days Pivot S2 support (201.10) On the hourly
chart the break was 4th time through. (so gave some confidence) OK I was lucky but my question is would this have been a scalp trade due to the major SR being taken out-in other word is the signal weakened. Also if no 4th time through trade would a trade have been sensible? ie If it bounced once off S2 and then broke?

Any thoughts would be helpful.
admin

Speddoch »

I am not sure what you are talking about, I do not use pivot points?
Speddoch

Hi

There is a link to a Pivotpoint calculator in the Tool Box section so mistakenly
thought it was part of your trading method.

PS. Will the webinar be recorded?
Mike

One more thing Nick, do you think your method would be so good on other pairs that are way less volatile than the GBP/JPY. I belive it is so effective because of the high volatility of this pair. On other pairs you might have to wait a month or more to trigger a trade.

Best regards!
kathy

hi Mike

less volatile pairs would require smaller profit targets but i don’t see why this wouldn’t work. it’s support/resistance. best thing to do is to look at other pairs and see what happens at s/r. determine what an appropriate scalp target and a break of a key s/r target would be. you wouldn’t use 50-70 on the euro. maybe 20-50 would be better? nick came about his numbers from experience and experimentation. we’ll all have to do the same for other pairs. that’s my 2 pips
Mike

Hi Kathy

What you say is right, but please tell me any other pair that “travells” so much between s/r lines and could you tell me which are in your opinnion the s/r lines on eur/usd for instance.
And I belive that Nick’s trades are so good because they are almost all the time quite far from the actual price.
admin

Mike »

I am not sure what you are getting at but if you use S+R lines on other pairs you just lower your targets. I have traded my lines on:

GBP/USD
EUR/JPY
NZD/JPY
USD/JPY
AUD/USD

All you need to do is adjust targets to suit the pair.
kathy

maybe we should start a thread where we could post s/r lines for other pairs. the purpose would be to help us learn how to place s/r lines AND to trade them for those that want to.

my reason for looking at other pairs down the road is that i don’t do london so if the move has taken place during that time, i’ve missed out. it’d be nice to know i have other options
Mike

Good idea Kathy! We should start with the pairs in order to cover more time zones.
Why don’t you give us one pair and discuss on it. In my opinion the most important one except GBP/JPY is GBP/USD.

Take care!
kathy

i’m leaving tomorrow for holidays. i think after nick’s webinar, we’ll be dangerous enough to give it a go. i agree about the cable. maybe hilton could critique our levels since he trades that one.