GBP/JPY Weekly Analysis (Wk Strt May/24/09)

Posted by Nick 17 Comments

Discuss the latest GBP/JPY movements in this forum thread

Hey Guys,

Last week was not bad but not great either. We had a win and a loss. The last line break happened so close to end of the week that it was not a trade. I never take trades a few candles before market close.

As for the loss it was not as bad as a normal loss. Since it happened so close to the start of the week I was being very cautious and closed it out with -30 pips. The win was worth +63 pips. So all in all I came out on top.

Sorry I did no update the blog I was way too busy with the blitz and on top of that I am running Forex4Noobs from a USB dongle modem which is unbelievably slow. Again I am doing written analysis as this connection cannot handle uploading a video. I get my broadband on Thursday though!

MONDAY IS A BANK HOLIDAY FOR BOTH THE U.S. and the U.K. SO I WONT BE TRADING UNTIL TUESDAY

:ebook:

These are all scalp lines therefore the target and stop for all of them is 50 pips.

1. Long @ 151.55 – strong line
This is an awesome line. We can see a strong move up from the 135.60 area followed by a strong reversal at our line. This formed a great little scalp line. I will be targeting 50 pips on a break of this line with a 50 pip stop loss. This line has been around for weeks though so be on the lookout for fake breaks. I will be watching this one like a hawk.

2. Short @ 142.95 – strong line

This line formed last week on the failed line break of the 143.30 and it is a pretty good line. The price has moved quite a decent distance away from it so it has gained quite a bit of strength in my eyes. Watch out though this area has proven to be very tough to break through. I will exercise extreme caution with this trade.

3. Short @ 139.00 – strong line

This is a very good line that formed a few weeks ago.

4. Short @ 135.60 – average line
This is a pretty good line but it is over 1000 pips away so I wouldn’t look for it to be broken this week. However, if it is I will be targeting 50 pips on a break of this line with a 50 pip stop loss.

5. Short @ 131.40 – average line
Again this is a pretty good line but it is far away so I wouldn’t look for it to be broken this week. However, if it is I will be targeting 50 pips on a break of this line with a 50 pip stop loss.

6. Other lines
As usual other lines are likely to form during the week so keep an eye out. I will update the analysis if any new lines form.

Some good news: The price has been down in this area for a while and as far as I can see some decent support and resistance lines are beginning to form. I will be reintroducing S+R lines into my trading next weeks.

Tags: forex, forex analysis, forex profit, forex trading, forex trading education, forex4noobs, free forex education, free forex signals, gbp/jpy, scalp line, scalp lines, strt, trade update, weekly analysis, www.forex4noobs.com

Miguel

Hi Nick,

Thank you very much for the Weekly Analysis!

Even though you don’t have a “proper connection” you still do your best to help us and it is very much appreciated.

I have a question though regarding the scalp line going long @ 151.55. Considering UK and US are “off” tomorrow, if the price comes near this line to break it, would you take it the trade? Or do you think there will not have enough price action for a good trade?

Thanks in advance for your clarification.

Have a wonderful trading week!

MiG
NickB

@Miguel:
Thanks for the comment, I forgot to add that to the analysis. I wont trade Monday as bank holidays usually mean very low volatility or very high but erratic volatility.
Miguel

@Nick:

Thank you very much for the clarification.

It makes sense to me, I just wanted to be sure and follow your trading system accurately.
Mike

So if the price is at 151.55 line with high volatility on monday still is not advisable to trade?

NickB

@Mike:

Yes Mike I do not trade on bank holidays. Even if there is high volatility it is usually fueled by speculators as banks are closed so moves can be very erratic.

ashfaq mustapha

thank u very much
The Chong

Nick, can i see your stats? mt4stats?
NickB

@The Chong:
I do not use MT4 to trade.
Damien

Hi Nick
Thanks for advise on scalp lines I am looking forward to the week ahead
Best Damien
Damien

Hi Nick

When I draw my line on top of candle wicks,it is at 151.48,is this difference from 151.55 somethething to do with adding 7 or 8 pips ,to try and avoid a reversal just over the line.or something else.
please let me know,I appreciate your advise

Thank You
Damien

NickB

@ Damien:

No it isn’t different brokers can have slightly different prices. Your charts are likely slightly different to mine. It is usually no big deal but when the line is something like 151.48 rounded it up to the psychological level of 151.50. In case you do not know what psych levels are they are rounded numbers so 151.00, 151.50, 152.00

invester100

hi everybody I think the 151.55 is no longer working cause the price is stuck in there !
I sent nick a pm but he is not answering , hope he will post a comment here to tell us what to do
thanks

NickB

@ invester100:

It is working, of course it is, did you get in?

ze

Nick, I like your work a lot because you give everyone a good reliable system and teach how to trade it.

I come to your site and subscribe to your email service because I admire simplicity in trading. Simple does not mean unsophisticated, just the opposite.

I used to scalp, but now I mostly trade swing/position. I may use a scalp to get into a trade. I do not like GBP/JPY for the spread, but otherwise it’s a good cash cow. It maybe a little difficult for the beginners because of really wide swings and volatility.
Recently it has been trending and that’s what I like the most.

Thank you and keep up your great work,

Ze

P.S. Your 151.55 line proved to be an excellent entry and a winning scalp trade.
http://forex4noobs.com ikej

Man! You definatley killed it with that long position trade of 151.55. I’m kicking myself for not setting price alarms @ 151.17 as I orignally planed too. I’ll catch the next big move though. Great job Nick!
NickB

@ikej:
That sucks! What happened, why didn’t you set your alarm?
NickB

@ze:
Thanks ze. Most newbies are scared of GBP/JPY but I belie they need to simply understand that it is a volatile pair so bigger stops are needed. Also the fact that it is volatile give you a much better chance of making a lot of pips fast. However, if you do not know how to trade it you can lose a lot of pips fast also.

I love trending markets too. I am happy with how its moving at the moment, hopefully it heads back up!