Still in the 148.00 (UPDATE: Trade closed)

Posted by Nick 39

Hey Guys,

This trade was auto-triggered for me while I slept. I blogged about this trade yesterday and finally today it broke. I am still in this one targetting about 100 pips. I see a lot of potential in this trade.

Who else is in?
Have you closed?
If not how many pips are you up?

————————————————– Update

Instead of posting a new post and having another email go out notifying of the new post I will just edit this one.

This trade was closed roughly 100 pips from target I made 93 pips on this one.

Did you take this trade?
How many pips did you make?

nawaf asad

i m still in it and its going up thx for a great entry

NickB

@ nawaf asad
Great work, how much did you end up getting out with?

Chukk

I am in my second session there.
first closed at 40 pips. Targeting just about the same in the second attempt!
Isn’t it great? But right now, I do not expect it will go farther than 150 level
Paul

Hey Nick,

Made 76 pips on this one but got in earier off the break of triangle on 15 min chart at 8.00am, do you think this was the right call to enter so early or better to wait till the scalp line is broken?
Martin

I was in, got 70 pips from it so far. I waited a while before entering. Nice trade. Still squeezing a last few drops out of it, just added a 15pip trailing stop…
Martin

Sorry for the 2 posts, but there, closed out at 89 pips. Whata cool trade. Shot Nick.
RobM

Hi Nick,
I didn’t make a trade but was following the charts for this. Why did you wait till the price crossed the 148 level before making your trade? Was this due to resistance seen between the 1st and 4th May? Great website – keep up the very usefull work.
Chukk

I should suggest we take it easy here as this is the kinda scenario that slaps your face if you don’t control the euphoria!!!
It is looking great with a great potential but care must be excercised!
Nick should be giving that advice.. lol
Martin

Hey Rob, Paul,
The trade was a reversal of the (short) scalp gone bad at about 146.40 area. We were trading a reversal like Nick explains in the ebook.
What makes it a good place to enter is the fact that it’s above the previous candle’s high, and that it’s a sort of phsycological resistance at the even 148 level.
spookie94

Same as RobM, sat on sidelines on this one (demo trading only anyway). Why did you take this trade? Is 148 a psych level? I didn’t see any clear resistance levels. 4 out of the 5 candles prior to this break out kind of tested the line, is this what you saw?
NickB

@spookie94:
Read the free e-Book man. It was a reversal trade and the line I entered on was just the closest available trigger. When I trade reversal candles I always look for a trigger point to enter the trade. The trigger point tells me that the move is actully a reversal and not just the normal up and down market movement. I saw 148.00 as a good trigger because it is:

1. The highest point of the reversal candle.
2. Has had a few bounces and show minor support/resistance recently.
3. Is a psychological level
NickB

@Chukk:
How so Chukk?
NickB

@Martin:
Somebody who read the e-Book yeyyy…. Thanks Martin!
nasir

I did not taken this trade because first when 148 line break south its is a reverse trade but after that few more candle created which does not seem reversal.

NickB

It looked like a reversal to me. I think you need a firmer understanding of how candles work. They do not all look like reversal candles but if you think of it as the struggle between the bulls and the bears it will start to make a lot more sense. Check out this article to learn a little more.

Chukk

Hey Nick, what I meant is simple: I was talking about the temptation of forgetting to look closely at the subsequent formations in the heat of the nice moves we have seen so far. For instance, in my old impatient days, I would have got my self into trouble by looking beyond 149.46 level where we are now seeing a bounce. It is not over yet, but these days, I think I am getting your sense in my head; to wait and see clearly.

I said all that cuz I see our colleagues talking about how many number of pips they have made number of times. In my short experience, I loose all sense of analysis after I make 3 profitable trades. I sat down and saw it as a problem. My reasoning was: In a very good setting (Time of high liquidity/volatility), the first trade comes off with good dose of reason (analysis). The second is less so. The third is even less so. Well… the fourth is devoid of reason. So, part of my solutions was: Take off after going the second round. See what happens before considering the third. If anything, suspend the fourth till further notice!

I didn’t mean to sound too verbose…. Just laying my learning process bare so ppl like you can guide and encourage me.
Thanks Nick
Danny

Hi Nick what a nice trade. Still have a lot to learn from you. Just wanna ask do you trade every failed breakout with long wick as a reversal trade? If so, what’s the successful rate of such reversal trade?

Thanks a lot for your time.

NickB

@danny:
Most of the time I will trade reversals from a failed break that forms a LWP. Reversal trades usually have an 80% success rate. As long as you select a good trigger point most of them work out.

NASH

HEY NICK AT WT TIME U GIVE SIGNALS
Ran

Hey Nick,

I trade your method a year and half now and took many reversals but this one was different because after the reversal bar price kept pushing down and even crossed again the scalp level so this 147.00 area is clearly not a support area, so the way I see it and obviously you see it differently the reversal bar or the reversal pattern is no longer valid. By the way read your eBooks and your video course.
Miguel

Hi Nick,

Thanks for the advice.

I made 50 pips.

I couldn’t let the trade run as everytime I trade my feelings come into play and tell me to close the trade as soon as I am in “green” even if it’s only a few pips.

I don’t know how to manage my “fear”. I always fear that the profitable trade will end up reversing and be a loosing trade.
I need to learn how to control my feelings and be more confident when I enter a trade.

I’m working on it!

Thank you very much for the great work you are doing! It is very much appreciated.

NickB

@Miguel:

Yeh fear of a trade turning around sucks. You might consider not watching the trade. Set some alarms, one 20 pips before your stop the other 10 pips before your take profit. When the alarm rings take a look and hope that its the good alarm.

I know a lot of people that got over their fear by not watching every pip movement of their trade.

NickB

@Ran:
Ran, take a look at the candle formations on that line. It clearly is an area of support, the candles are having a lot of trouble getting through that line. In fact if you look at it on a daily chart you could even call this a full fledged S+R line not just a scalp line. The fact that the candles reach that way when they touch the line tells be it is a pretty strong area of support.

As for the reversal bar, there are several reversal bars one after the other. All the candles indicated that the bears were exhausted and that the bulls wanted to take over. Not all reversal patterns have a single perfect candle. Read the candles not the shapes.
ED

Hey Nick;

I’m still in the trade because I never closed my long position yesterday when it failed to break the 146.940.. I saw that beautiful doji on my 3 hour chart (Oanda does not have 4 hour) and I have until now 146 pips.. looking forward to close with 200.. thatnks for all the experience shared in this website.. the ebook and the vieo course have helped me a lot.
Miguel

Thanks Nick for your precious advice. I really appreciate it.

Next time I open a trade, I am going to set my SL and my PT and then I will not look at the trade.

Because it is true that looking at the trade while you are “in”, makes me nervous and the fear comes in.

Thanks again and please continue to do the great job you’re doing!
Danny

Dear Nick, with this kind of break and reversal follow up trading method, can i say it’s probability of NOT losing is 0.8 (breakout win) + 0.2 (breakout lose) * 0.8 (reversal win) = 0.96.

So, your method has in theory 96% of success (or not losing) rate. What a genious. You are really my idol. Thank you so much for your effort in sharing all your invaluable knowledge.
NickB

@Danny: You obviously cant trade reversals on all breakout losses. The win rate of my method is 80% not 96%.
rlee

Hey Nick, another 4 hr doji with a longe wick formed, is that considered another reversal candle? If so, are you going to trade it, why or why not?

Thanks
Martin

@rlee:
For what it’s worth… That line (about 146.40-ish) has been compromised. The area seems to provide support, but the line is not very clear and got used yesterday. It’s not safe to use it again with such a small move away from it. And the bulls have been particularly busy since yesterday. Compare your thoughts to the NickB method ebook, you’ll notice that only 2 candles formed on the way down (4HR chart) after the (long) reversal candle at 149.46. You wanna see at least 4 or 5 or more form on the way down. Also, it’s not a very substantial move down, there’s only about 300pips distance in the most recent move (from 149.46 down to 146.40 area), and with constant back and forth – not enough to draw a good scalp line. You could trade it, but I doubt that you’d see your target anytime soon and u run quite a risk of it crashing on you. You wanna see more momentum. Some real pressure from either bulls or bears. Right now things are slow, so you’ll need to be careful. I find that reading the material a few times helps to drill it in, even if u think u already know. I particularly enjoyed the most recent ebook on candles. If you’re trading a live account, use small amounts and try things out, trading makes u a better trader.
L8r.
NickB

@Miguel:
No problem man. Thanks for the thanks and thank you for being a part of Forex4Noobs!
NickB

@ED:
Hey Ed, you out now? it’s reversed quite a bit, hopefully you made some pips!
spookie94

Nick,
First of all I meant to say I didn’t see any clear support levels (not resistence). I understood it was a reversal trade. I was asking if you set your trigger at 148 because it might be a psych level, because my chart showed it about 147.85. Also, I’ve read your ebook a couple of times and all the reversal set up examples show a LWP. This trade didn’t have that on the 4h. Was the reversal probable because of the bull candle had a close higher than the previous bear candle open? Just trying to understand my candles a little better. Thanks.
Eggs Benny

Just a noob and still demo trading but its going well.

I got in late on this one, missed the boat really but took it 148.63 for 30 as it was a nice strong move and this was still under the next obvious resistance level.

Anyway, everyone seems to only be using scalps but I reckon there is significant history at these price levels going back 15 years on the daily.

I am talking about lines 151.50 and 138.98.

Any comments Nick B or MH????
ED

Yes. I got out with 146 pips.. thank you Nick.. Now I was wondering, is 145.180 or 145.200 a scalp line. I’d draw a trendline after the price failed to break the 146.940 line at 145.350 because the price reverse two times on my 3hour chart and 3 times in my confirmation 5 min chart. I entered at break of the 146.350 line and I was succesful with 50 pips profit. Now I’m wondering if the 145.200 which have the same layout will be a scalp line also because it has reverse from it two times now. Anyone??? Some thoughts???
LucidObscurity

Hey spookie,
Keep in mind that many brokers do not show you the correct candles. Many will begin the first candle of the day at midnight based on their time zone instead of midnight GMT. A couple of my demo account and my live account show that candle of the failed break south as a very clear LWP; however some of my other demo accounts do not.
NickB

@spookie94:
You may not have GMT candles since it was definitely a LWP. Try using ODL for your charting or GFT they use GMT candles.
aks

Martin. Your reply and explanation to rlee’s question was very clear and to the point, without being condescending. Thank you for that. It really helps those of us who are un clear on points and issues which may seem obvious or basic to the so called experts.
Martin

@aks:

Hey man I’m glad u feel that way, ur welcome. Feel a bit like the class nerd jumping in on the thread, but looking back at some of the disasters I’ve called trades, I know in the beginning u need all the help u can get. May u trade well! L8r.
Aziz

Too Bad I was away on Holidays