So, should you short the Euro this week?

There are economic and technical reasons to short the Euro. If I had to pick a direction I would say EUR/USD is going down. However, I will not be selling as there is no clear signal on my charts.

But this is not about me. Who cares if I am going short, the question is should you short the Euro this week?

I cannot tell you if you should sell but I can show you why selling too early might be dangerous. Many people are saying that EUR/USD has broken support but EUR/USD is still stuck on support.

The weekly EUR/USD chart above shows a large reversal from the 1.2850-1.2900 support area in January 2011. It also shows a three week struggle by the Bears to break the 1.2850-1.2900 support area in December 2012. During the three week week struggle the price reversed almost 200 pips after touching the support area.

The 1.2850-1.2900 area has a long history of causing massive reversals in price. In fact ever since the inception of the Euro this area has been causing trouble.The weekly EUR/USD chart below goes back to 2008 and shows the 1.2850-1.2900 area acting as both support and resistance.

Why are people saying that support on EUR/USD is already broken? Support is far from broken and selling EUR/USD right now (2012-05-14 6:00 GMT) is far from safe.

Do not get me wrong, I am not saying that EUR/USD will not fall. I already said that if I were forced to pick, long or short, I would short.

The point I am trying to make is that EUR/USD is fighting a significant area of support right now. Selling into support is very dangerous, you don’t sell into a group of buyers.

If you want to sell EUR/USD my advice is to wait for support to break.

I will leave you with one final thought. It is a well known fact that most amateur traders fail. Forex forums and blogs are full of amateurs. Do not enter a trade because everybody else is doing it. Do your own analysis, do your own research and think before you trade.

Like this post? Hate it? Want to share your opinion? Comment below!

This Sunday (2012-05-06) EUR/USD opened at 1.3011, 71 pips below last weeks close of 1.3082. This is the largest weekend gap on EUR/USD since November 25th 2011. Whenever the Forex market opens with a large gap I get a barrage of emails about gap trading in Forex.

The conventional wisdom in Forex is that gap trading is highly profitable and easy. In this post I take a look at just how reliable and easy gap trading is.

What Is Gap Trading?

Gaps are empty spaces between the close of one candle and the open of the next. In Forex gaps are not very common and they usually only occur at market open on Sundays. These gaps occur between a pairs close price on Friday and it’s open price on Sunday.

Stock and commodity traders have been exploiting gaps for decades. Since the stock market closes each day gaps are much more common. The concept behind gap trading is that price will always try to fill the gap. This may sound illogical but there are some logical reasons for price to fill gaps in the stock market. Generally when price gaps there is no support and resistance in the gap area. This means that price has free room to move inside the gap.

Over the past few years people have started trading Sunday evening gaps in Forex. The concept is the same, gap traders think that price will always fill a gap.

Does Price Always Fill The Gap?

Technically speaking price always fills the gap, but this doesn’t really mean anything. Every Sunday gap seen this year has been filled but one trade moved 306 pips on the opposite direction before the gap was filled two weeks later. Another gap was filled within two days but the price move 87 pips on the opposite direction before returning to fill the gap.

So even though gaps are almost always filled trading gaps in not always viable.

A Closer Look at Gap Trading

I have compiled statistics in order to analyse the profitability of gap trading. The statistics are of gaps in 2012 on the EUR/USD pair.

The System

To compile these statistics I needed a basic gap trading system. For the purpouses of this analysis I decided to use a very basic system.

Pairs: EUR/USD
Target: Size of gap.
Stop: 50% of target.
Entry: Provided the gap is 20 pips or wider trades are entered as soon as the market opens on Sunday.
Exit: As soon as target or stop is hit.

Broker

For the analysis I used my main broker GFT Forex. Since the Forex market has no central exchange there is no official open or close time in Forex. This means that gaps may appear different dependant on your broker. This could lead to different results than the ones below.

Results

Five out of the nine trade were losses. Best case scenario, trading gaps using this system would give you a 50% chance of winning a trade. Win rate aside, the system is profitable by +45. This is attributed to the win loss ration of 2:1.

These stats show how unreliable gap trading can be. This year we have had nine gaps, eight of those gaps have been filled and one remains unfilled. The table below shows you the floating pip loss you would have needed to endure for each gap to close.

Three of these nine trades required a floating loss of more than -50 pips before the gap was filled. It is illogical to leave a trade open for -87 pips in the hope of making 43 pips when the gap is filled. One of the trades had a -306 pips floating loss and the one that is currently has had -101 pips. So even though most gaps are filled some require you to suffer large floating losses before being filled.

Is Gap Trading In Forex Profitable?

In my opinion gap trading isn’t a viable in Forex. However, I have only tested one pair with four months worth of data. To be definitive I would need to test at least five pairs with one year of data. I might do this in future but at the moment it is more important to address the flawed wisdom in the Forex community.

GAPS ARE NOT ALWAYS FILLED QUICKLY!

Yesterday I was asked on my blog if I considered shorting EUR/USD risky because there was an unfilled gap above my short. If I see a good trade I wont let an unfilled gap keep me out of the market. The statistics make it clear that gaps are not always filled quickly, so they should not impact my trading decisions.

I think the prevailing wisdom about gap trading in Forex is wrong. While it might be possible to make some profit trading gaps it is not as easy as people suggest. So next time somebody tells you that the price has gapped so you should trade the fill, tell them that gap trading is a roll of the dice.

EUR/USD Last Week

EUR/USD made some interesting moves last week. Unfortunately no proper reversal trades formed on the Daily, 8hr or 4hr charts so I took no trades on EUR/USD last week.

EUR/USD started the week between the 1.3265-1.3285 resistance area and the 1.3190-1.3210 support area. It ranged between those two areas until Tuesday when it broke the 1.3190-1.3210 support and tumbled down to our next support at 1.3120-1.3140. EUR/USD spent the next few days stuck on top of the 1.3120-1.3140 support area. The Bears didn’t seem able to break the 1.3120-1.3140 but the Bulls were not able to repel the Bears either.

On Friday the Bears eventually broke through the 1.3120-1.3140 support but it did not make it down to the next support at 1.3040-1.3060.

Long Trades on EUR/USD This Week

Going long early in the week could be risky. Above last weeks close price of 1.3080 there is the 1.3100 psychological level providing resistance. Last week the 1.3100 did not seem to impact price at all so it may be ignored this week too. However, when it comes to psychological levels I never ignore them. It would be smart to keep an eye out for resistance at the 1.3100 and possible bearish reversals.

After the 1.3100 psychological level the Bulls will be confronted by the major resistance areas at 1.3120-1.3140. This area held very as support well last week so it could present a problem for the Bulls. If you are going long you should watch the 1.3120-1.3140 closely as it is a place in which Bears can enter the market.

After the 1.3120-1.3140 there seems to be a minor resistance level at 1.3160 which could cause a few problems. If the Bulls manage to cross all that resistance the next major resistance areas is at 1.3190-1.3210.

Short Trades on EUR/USD This Week

Short trades seem a little safer this week. The first major support area is below last weeks close is the 1.3040-1.3060. The Bears may have trouble breaking through this area and it held very well last time it was approached on the 18th of April.

If the Bears manage to push through the 1.3040-1.3060 they will then need to break the psychological level at 1.3000. The 1.3000 is a very significant psych level and it has held price back since mid February this year. The last attempt at the 1.3000 was on the 15th of March and it is what sparked off the major Bull rally we saw in March. So do not doubt that the 1.3000 is a very strong support level that can cause reversals.

If the Bears break the 1.3000 the next major support area is the 1.2950-1.2970.

Ranging on EUR/USD

As always ranges are possible, I will be looking out for ranges between the 1.3040-1.3060 support and the 1.3120-1.3140 resistance. The 1.3100 psychological level could get in the way of this range so watch out.

Summary

There is a lot less support and there is resistance this week so I would not be surprised to see some further moves down. That being said the 1.3000 level is extremely strong and it could hold the Bears back.

As always I will be looking for indecision forming on support and resistance. If the price reaches the 1.3000 I will definitely be looking for a reversal set-up at this level.

You know that Forex is not easy.

The problem is that most sites wont tell you how hard Forex can be. In fact most sites say Forex is easy. Most Forex websites do not tell you the truth about Forex.

So……. I will tell you.

Harsh Reality 1: Forex is Never Quick and Easy

Most new traders think Forex will be easy.

They see advertisements promising quick and automated riches with a Forex robot or something equally irresistible. They dive right in blind to the dangers and they get hurt.

Big Surprise….. FOREX IS NOT EASY!

In fact anybody who tells you Forex is easy is lying. Check out this ad below:

Would you buy this product?

Why not?

You could be a lawyer in 30 days, you could work for a prestigious law firm earning a six figure income.

You would not buy the product because you know its a lie. Getting a law degree requires half a decade of study. There is no way you can become a master lawyer in under a month.

Forex might not be as hard as law but the same concept holds true. No product is going to make you a master trader in a few weeks. No EA (Forex robot) is going to make you consistent profits while you sleep. Forex just isn’t that easy!

If you are here for easy riches, got to a casino, you will have better chances there!

Harsh Reality 2: Most Systems are Useless

Most traders waste time searching for the perfect trading system.

When looking for a system the first stop is usually popular Forex forums. If you see a system with great feedback and many users it must work right?

Wrong!

Most trading systems on popular Forex forums are created by inexperienced traders. The systems may work well for a few weeks, or even for a few months, but they fail in the long run.

This is especially true of indicator based systems. Indicators are sensitive to changes in market conditions. Some indicator based systems give amazing signals in trending markets but fail in ranging markets. The problem is that most indicator based systems are not adaptable to changing market conditions. So a system that works this week might not work next week. If a trading system has not been forward tested for over a year you cannot trust its effectiveness.

If you go down the path of hunting for Forex systems you have already failed. You will embark on a long, fruitless search and find nothing.

My advice is to start with the basics, learn how to read price action and how to place Support and Resistance areas. Once you learn those two things you will not need to find a trading system.

Harsh Reality 3: Demo Trading Won’t Prepare You For Live Trading

Imagine a mean looking, tattooed biker approaches you. He pulls out a shotgun, points it at your chest and demands your wallet. What would you do? Chances are you would probably hand over your wallet pretty quickly.

Now imagine an scrawny little eight year old kid approaches you. He pulls out a water pistol, points it at you and asks for your wallet. What would you do? You would probably laugh.

This may sound absurd but there is a correlation. When you trade a demo account you are not using real money. So the fear and apprehension of risking real money does not impact your performance.

A demo account is like the little kid above, it is play money, you can laugh it off and move on.

A real account is like the biker above, the fear and the intimidation of trading real money impacts your actions.

Psychological factors may seem insignificant but they are very significant. Most new traders perform extremely well on demo accounts but fail abysmally on live accounts. Psychology matters and demo accounts do not prepare you for real trading.

Demo accounts do have their use. They are great for familiarizing yourself with a trading platform and learning basic trading concepts. They are also good for basic testing of a trading system.

Harsh Reality 4: You Need Time

So many websites tell you that you can trade Forex successfully with less than one hour of work per week.

The reality is that you need to invest a lot of time into becoming a profitable trader. If you can only find a few hours each week to dedicate to Forex you should probably give up.

Learning to become a consistently profitable trader takes a lot of time. You need to be prepared to set aside several hours a week to study Forex. According to scientists it takes 10,000 hours of practice to master something. I doubt you need 10,000 hours to become a profitable trader. However, you will need more than two hours per week.

The good news is that once you are profitable it is possible to cut your trading time down to a few hours per week. Currently I trade around two hours per day four days a week.

Harsh Reality 5: Adapt or Die

The Forex market is constantly changing. You need to be able to adapt or you will never make it.

With a constantly changing market a trader need to be able to make changes on the fly and adapt to current situations. So, a good trade knows how to adapt quickly to a changing market.

When the market throws something unexpected at you, you need to be able to analyse the best course of action and make a decision quickly.

My trading method is based on price action. Right now I concentrate almost exclusively on reversal trading. This is because since 2010 the average daily range of Forex pairs has dropped. GBP/JPY used to range 280 pips per day and know it ranges 120 pips.

When markets are not ranging breakout trading becomes hard. My trading method was adapted from trading breakouts to trading reversals in 2010. When pairs start to range again I will probably adapt to market conditions and begin to trade breakouts.

A good trader needs to be ready to adapt quickly to changing markets.

So, Should You Bother Trading Forex?

Well, that is up to you. We all know that the vast majority of new traders fail. They fail because they expect no stress, fast and easy riches.

You cannot change the harsh realities above. However, you can accept them and get on with it anyway.

Trading is tough but you need to be tougher. You need to work hard and you need to persevere.

Will it be hard? yes.

Can you make it a little easier? yes…….

The Next Step

The reason I first started forex4noobs.com was to help new traders become professional traders. That is why this site is packed with stuff to help you along the road from beginner to pro. So if you want to get on the right path take a look around the site.

If you are completely new to Forex you should start with or basic Forex education section.

If you know the basics you should check out our free Forex course. In the video course I show you many important things you wont learn anywhere else. I show you how to put together a highly effective trading plan, money management plan and trading diary. I even explain how to put together a trading strategy.

For free analysis and trade ideas check in to this blog regularly.

Finally if you want a proven trading strategy along with a private members forum where we discuss trades check out the advanced Forex Price Action course. It is closed to new members right now but if you throw your email in I will contact you in the next few weeks about getting access.

Support and Resistance is one of those things that all newbie traders hear about but few use properly. I believe that all traders should place Support and Resistance areas on their chart. It doesn’t matter what system or method you trade, even if you trade EA’s, Support and Resistance is vital.

Support and Resistance areas tell you precisely where price most likely stall or bounce. Traders strive to achieve even the slightest bit of insight into what price will do in the future. Support and Resistance areas give you that insight. Just check out the chart below and see how accurately price reacts to the highlighted Support and Resistance areas.

Whatever trading strategy use the insight that Support and Resistance gives you can help make you more profitable. So start placing these areas on your chart. Check out the Forex Strategy section to see how I place my Support and Resistance areas.

2. Plan Your Trading Week

Planning your trading week is an essential part of being a profitable trader. Sadly, many new traders I speak to do not plan their trading week…. no wonder so many new traders fail.

Every Saturday I go through a simple two step process that prepares me for the coming trading week. It takes me about an hour but it is time well spent.

• I check and print out all the major news releases that are due in the next week. This saves me from entering trades at the wrong time. I wrote a post about this last year which you should check out.
• I go through every pair I plan to trade in the coming week and do my analysis. This includes adjusting Support and Resistance areas and identifying key price levels. You can see my EUR/USD analysis weekly on this blog.

These two simple steps prepare me for the week ahead and help me avoid stupid mistakes.

3. Realise It Will Take Time

I have said it a hundred times on this blog, Forex is a career not a get rich quick scheme. You need to realise that attaining success in Forex could take one to three years. If you are not ready to commit yourself to learning Forex for at least one year then you may as well give up now.

If you want to become a profitable trader you need to understand that it will take a lot of time and a lot of hard work. There are no short cuts and no magic bullets in Forex. It is a long road but if your willing to invest the time it can change your life.

I wrote about this recently in the Get Rich Slow article. I also wrote another article recently in which I mapped the road to success in Forex.

4. Keep a Trading Journal

Keeping a trading journal allows you to track your mistakes and learn from them. It also allows you to recognise negative patterns, what does this mean? let me give you an example.

About two years ago I started to keep a trading journal in which I tracked each and every trade I took. After six months I noticed a pattern forming with some of my losing trades. It turns out that most of my losing trades were opened just before or just after the close of the New York session. It turned out that 80% of the trades I took at this time failed. Without a trading journal I would probably still be taking those losing trades.

Two years ago I was already a successful trader but I was making mistakes that went unnoticed until I started keeping a trading journal. So if you are not yet a successful trader imagine all the mistakes keeping a trading journal might reveal to you.

I talk about trading journals in lesson 5 of the free forex course along with sharing my trading journal template.

5. Build Your Own Strategy

This tip may sound scary but don’t worry. You do not need to build your own trading strategy from scratch. However, you cannot expect to trade a strategy with the same degree of efficiency as the creator of the strategy.

I recently had a conversation with one of my Advanced Price Action Course students. She recently finished the course and began putting what she learned into practice. However, instead of trading what I taught her exclusively she mixed my Price Action lessons with lessons from another course. So instead of trying to trade exactly like me she tailored what I taught her to her own style. She is off to a good start so far and has taken some really good trades.

Forcing yourself to trade a strategy that clashes with your personality is never good. The key is to take the parts of the strategy that work for your and use them. It may take some time but eventually you will be able to build a unique strategy that works for you.

Where these tips helpful? Leave a comment below and discuss them or throw in your own tips!

The great thing about my trading strategy is that it can be adapted to trade any time frame. I trade pure price action and I keep it as simple as possible. So switching from 1hr to weekly charts is dead simple when your method is based only on price analysis.

If you have been following my weekly analysis lately you will have noticed that I am constantly on the lookout for ranges because a good range means good reversal trades. Finding a good range on a 4hr charts usually results in 2-4 reversal trades at an average of 40 pips per trade which results in 80-160 pips.

A good range on a daily chart usually results in the same amount of trades but with an average profit of 80 pips per trade. So a good range on a daily chart can be worth between 160-320 pips for me and the best thing is that these trades are low maintenance.

Ranges are perfect areas to make profit because range forms between an area of support and an area of resistance. What else do we call support and resistance? a buy zone and sell zone! So when the price moves up it hits the sell zone when it move down it hits the buy zone. This makes for some easy and predictable trading.

Above you can see my USD/CAD daily chart. On this chart you can see that USD/CAD was trapped in a range from January 27th up to April 25th. The red dotted line on the chart is the 1.0000 psychological level. This range made for some very easy reversal trades.

If you have read my price action strategy you will know how I trade reversals so I won’t go over it in detail. The basic idea behind a reversal trade is to look for a preceding trend followed by an indecision candle forming on top of support or resistance.

Above I have marked out five reversals that formed in this USD/CAD range. The first trade failed but the next four were successful. On USD/CAD I target 60 pips on a daily chart reversal as the average daily range for the pair is only 80 pips. Together these five trades made roughly 210 pips since February. While this may not seem like a lot it isn’t bad for low management trades that you can spot up to 12 hours before they trigger.

Spotting Ranges

Spotting a range is straight forward, I simply look for two bounces on the support (buy zone) and two bounces on resistance (sell zone). Once I see that I know that a range has formed.

Trading Range Bounces

The concept of trading range bounces is the same as reversal trading. In a range price dips down into a buy zone and reverses up into a sell zone.

You could trade every single dip and rally but this would be dangerous as you never know when the price will break the zone. If you only look for strong reversal setups forming in either the buy or sell zones then you can make some easy pips. Right now the market seems to want to range rather than rally. So have a read of my price action strategy, learn to trade reversals and make some pips!

Hey Guys,

In the video below I get access to a demo of Trade Vantage and have a look through it. Within a few seconds of using the demo I already spot inconsistencies and suspicious signals.

The video below exposes several issues I have found with Trade Vantage including repainting signals and poor forward trading performance.

The first thing that struck me as strange about Trade Vantage is the repainting of signals. On the Trade Vantage sales page Dustin Pass shows us Trade Vantage signals on a EUR/JPY chart. Looking at the same chart on the Trade Vantage demo platform shows different trades. One trade in particular was repainted from what looks like a losing trade to a winning trade. In my opinion this is extremely shady.

The other problem with Trade Vantage is that the signals do not seem to work too well when forward traded. I explain this further in the video above.

All in all Trade Vantage seems very shady to me.

Is Trade Vantage a scam? Discuss below.

Over the last three weeks I have been asked ‘why do your 4hr charts look different to mine?’ over twenty times. In this post I am going to explain why 4hr charts can look different from broker to broker.

Forex Broker Server Time

A Forex brokers server time is different to a brokers platform display time. Forex trading platforms allow you to change the displayed time to your local time. Changing the display time will not make any changes to your candle formations.

All Forex brokers require servers to run, store information, and draw charts. A brokers server time determines the open/close time of their 4hr candles. The first 4hr candle for the day always opens at 00:00. With my broker, GFT Forex, the new 4hr candle opens at 00:00 GMT+0. With other brokers 4hr candles can open at any time, two of the most common times after GMT+0 are GMT+1 and GMT-5.

If my broker starts the day at 00:00 GMT+0 and yours one hour later at 00:00 GMT+1 our charts will end up looking very different.

The Best Server Time

I am often asked what server time is the best. The short answer is that there is no best time. However, my guess is that most of the worlds traders are using GMT+0. Most of the volume in Forex occurs in the London session and most UK based traders using UK based brokers are using GMT+0 charts. Also, UTC/GMT is the official standard for world time so I can only assume most traders are looking at GMT+0 charts.

When looking at your charts it is important that you see what the majority of people see. Trading any market is a self fulfilling prophecy. I use Support and Resistance lines to trade, these lines have no inherent magical voodoo attached to them that causes price to bounce from them. Price bounces from Support and Resistance because thousands of traders expect it to so they place orders at these levels. This is the same for candle formations, trend lines and even indicators. So, when I look at a chart I want to know that the majority of traders in the world are looking at the same chart. I choose charts formatted in GMT+0 because I believe that most traders in the world, especially the big boys, are using GMT+0 charts.

How Important is This?

If you do not trade 4hr charts or daily charts you will likely not notice any difference. This is only a problem for 4hr charts and above.

If you follow my Forex Trading Strategy you should probably be using GMT+0 based charts. However, Price Action is just as visible on GMT+0 as it is on GMT-5. While I think that anything other than GMT+0 charts are a liability I still think you can trade profitably using them.

Forex GMT+0 Based Brokers

*Note – This list is purely informational, I do not vouch for any of the brokers listed here except for GFT Forex which I use personally.
- GFT Forex
- Dukascopy
- InterbankFx

If you wish to help contribute to this list please leave a comment below and I will add the broker.

How Do They Do It?

They buy a Reuters feed and read out the news as Reuters deliver it. Reuters delivers news extremely fast and they deliver economic indicator numbers the instant they come out. So when an important economic indicator such as the NFP is released you will get the numbers as fast as the people at talking-forex.com can read it from the Reuters feed. This means that for a small fee a month you get access to what is essentially a Reuters feed with a 1 second delay.

Free Live Forex News

Who wants to pay though? Even though it is a small fee….. a fee is a fee!

Well I have got my hands on a link to a site that streams the talking-forex.com feed for FREE. Most likely this will not last forever but you may as well make use of it as long as it lasts.

Talking Forex For Free

Earlier this week I promised that I would be releasing an update to my trading method. Well the update is finally here!

As you probably know my key goal in Forex is to keep things as simple as possible. With this update of my method I have further streamlined and simplified things. So far this year I have taken 20 trades with this trading method and won 19 of them. So the method is fresh, simple, and highly profitable!

Traditionally I released my method as an e-Book but this version is laid out over several webpages. I will be compiling the method into an e-Book soon and will be adding it as a free download.

Check out the method in the Forex Trading Strategy section.

Next week I will be holding a free webinar and Q&A session on my trading method.

Have any questions? Want me to expand on something? Leave a comment and let me know!