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Adapting to Market Conditions

Posted by Nick 8

Hey Guys,

It’s been a while since I last posted. Sorry I haven’t been around much but I have been busy with a family emergency. It’s also Christmas time so I have been running around like crazy, organizing Christmas and buying presents.

I am back to trading now so let’s take a look at the current market conditions and how to trade them. The key in a market like this is how well you can adapt to the current situation. With the market moving so erratically I have had to adapt my trading method, in order to keep making pips. This does not mean I have completely changed my method. Actually I have further simplified my method to work better in this kind of market. So what have I done?

For now, I have stopped trading support + resistance lines. However, I have found that scalp lines and reversal patterns are working even better than normal, in these conditions. The problem with support + resistance lines on GBP/JPY at the moment is that GBP/JPY is in an area we have not seen since 1995. This makes it very hard to pick S+R lines. That’s why scalp lines are so effective at the moment because they are based off current price action. SO what do we do?

WE ADAPT!

We do not use S+R lines until the market reverses and moves towards more familiar prices, where there is more history to base S+R lines accurately.

You can’t try to place S+R lines when you have no historical data to place them. If there are no lines to place DO NOT PLACE THEM. You do not try to fit lines in when they shouldn’t be there.

So right now all I am using is scalp lines and candle patterns and there are still a number of trades to be taken.

I will release an article in which I will discuss this issue in more detail tomorrow.

Closing this one out

Posted by Nick 18

London has opened and this isn’t going anywhere. Closing it out for around -15 pips.

The analysis was sound and it looked like a  good trade. Unfortunately even when it all looks good it doesn’t always work out. I believe it is going to go lower, the issue is when. It could go lower now or it could be in a few candles time.

I took three trades this week. I will post a break down of the other two tomorrow. The first two were both successful. I was not able to post the first two trades as I was dealing with a family emergency. The analysis will be back to normal next week.

GBP/JPY trade

Posted by Nick 2

Well that kind of sucks I pressed ‘Publish’ on that last post the second the line broke. Ah well sorry I didn’t get this one out earlier guys. I am in and holding with a 70 pip stop. Let’s see how this one goes.

Who got in this one based on their own analysis?

Possible GBP/JPY trade – Extreme Caution

Posted by Nick 2

Hey Guys,

Yes I am using trend lines. I know it’s not part of my method but I have been experimenting with them and they work very well with my support + resistance lines. Right here we can see a descending wedge on GBP/JPY. The top line of the wedge intersects with the 136.30 scalp line which has had three strong bounces. It looks like a decent set-up.

Basically I see it backing itself into a corner and I would love to see a break of the 136.30

This is a VERY DANGEROUS trade as there is a lot of news coming out today. I will take it but I will exercise EXTREME CAUTION.

So the trade is:

Entry: Short on the break of the 136.30 scalp line
Stop: – 70 pips
Target: + 70 pips

I will be watching this one like a hawk. The first sign that its going bad I will probably close. I suggest if you are a newbie and do not have a few trades under your belt you only demo trade this one. It is a dangerous trade.

Out of state

Posted by Nick 11

Hey sorry guys, I had a family emergency and had to fly out of state. I wont be updating the blog until I get back next week.

$40 Off of NickB Method Video Course Until Monday

Posted by Nick 7

Hey Guys,

Over the past month Forex4Noobs.com’s popularity has grown. The number of visitors has jumped up a jaw dropping 20% per week. With all the new members joining I have been getting a lot of emails concerning the video course I released, about a year ago.

I do not advertise the video course very much as I want to keep Forex4Noobs.com a free site. Even though the course is for sale all money goes to charity.

Because of all the recent questions, about the course, I have decided to offer a special price, for the next few days. I have knocked $40 off the price of the course……

This is the method I use to give the free trade calls in this blog. To read more about the my method and get access click here.

EDIT: Sorry guys, there was a small error earlier and the wrong price was displayed by PayPal. It has been fixed now so it’s at the proper discoutned price!

Trade Tallying Now Starting

Posted by Nick 2

Hey guys,

I just spent the whole day yesterday going through my e-Mail inbox. I noticed quite a few emails suggesting I keep a tally of the trades taken based on my weekly analysis.

So starting this week I will be tallying all trades. To take a look at the tally simply click on the ‘trade tally’ link at the top of this page.

GBP/JPY Weekly Analysis (Wk Strt Nov/09/08)

Posted by Nick 10

Hey Guys,

What a great week we had last week. We had three trades and all three were winners making a total of about 150 pips. This week is looking great too. We have four scalp line trades and a possible S+R line trade.

Watch the video below to see this weeks analysis:

:targets:

:ebook:

Kill Your Losing Streaks

Posted by Nick 51

Imagine a small losing streak of just 5 trades risking 3% on each; it would cost you a massive 13% of your account. Think about that for a second, 13% of your account wiped out by just a handful of bad trades…… if you’re a trader the very thought of that should send shivers down your spine.

So, if you have a bad run you could easily end up decimating your account, after just a few trades.

Let’s also remember math is pretty logical but we as human beings are pretty emotional. With math we can say that each trade had a risk of 3%. In real life though, most newbie’s after a few losses would make the mistake of trading out of anger. 3% risk becomes 5% and before they know it what started off as a little losing streak becomes a margin call.

There Is a Way Round Losing Streaks

It is just so simple, if you lose 3 trades in a row close down your platform and take a few days off trading. This allows you to:

1. Kill the Losing Streak – Losing streaks always start off small, you may make a little mistake in your analysis, which leads to a bad trade. Maybe out of anger, you take another bad trade and from there on out the losing streak takes on a life of its own. Instead of letting a pebble become a boulder, it’s best to cut losing streaks short. If you make a conscious decision to shut down the charts you will cut off all chances of trading out of anger, and making costly mistakes.

2. Take a Break and Clear Your Head – I believe most losing streaks are caused by chart overload. After a few months of constantly staring at charts you could start to lose it. So instead of making mistakes take a short break and come back to your charts with a refreshed mind.

3. Preserve Your Capital – Do I need to explain this one? It stops you from losing your hard earned money by taking dumb revenge trades and making stupid mistakes.

How This Rule Has Helped Me

When I was a newbie I blew two accounts due to losing streaks. On my third (and final, if I blew it) account I started using this rule and my account just kept on growing. There have been several times over the past few years where I lost three trades in a row and took a few days off. Any one of those times, if I had kept pushing it I could have thrown it all away.

If it wasn’t due to stringently following this rule I would not be a trader today. I would have squandered away my capital and right now I would be a 9am to 5pm pen salesman.

This is something you should seriously consider adopting into your trading.

Are You Going To Use This Rule?

Are you going to use this rule in your trading? Leave a comment and discuss it, I would like to see what everybody thinks about this.

If you like this post leave a comment please.

:vidcourse:

4 Psychological Pitfalls That Will Blow Your Account

Posted by Nick 42

Meet Jack:

Jack is a professional trader. He makes all his money trading the Forex market. He has been trading for five years. He is patient, disciplined and, in his trading, he is fearless.

Meet Tom:

Tom is a newbie. He barely manages to break-even with his trading. He has been trading for six months. Tom takes unnecessary risks as he is undisciplined, and he panics when he takes a trade.

Let’s imagine we have a super profitable system. On paper, traded mechanically, this system has an average of seven wins from ten trades. Now, let’s imagine we give both Jack and Tom this method and they trade it.

What do you think will happen?

Jack will take the system, take the trades, and make a lot of pips. In fact, Jack will probably improve the efficiency of the system and bump it up to eight winners out of ten.

Tom will take the system, take the trades, and pretty much screw it all up. As I said, trading it mechanically will give Tom an average of seven out of ten winners. However, Tom will be lucky to get five out of ten winners.

Why does it work this way?

It all comes down to two things; psychology and experience.

There isn’t much you can do about experience. However, as I mentioned in my last article, you can do something about psychology. So let’s take a look at some of the dangerous psychological pitfalls. Hopefully, after reading this, you will be able to see them coming and stop them, before they destroy your account.

4 Psychological Pitfalls

1. The Desire to be Rich

The desire to be rich manifests itself in many ways. The main ways are fear and greed and they inevitably lead to other problems. If you think about it the majority of the issues newbie’s have stem from the desire to be rich. Things such as:

  1. Over trading
  2. Poor money management by risking too much

Forex will not make you rich in the short term. It will likely take years before you’re trading well enough to leave your day job. Forex is a career and in the long run, if you’re successful, it can give you a very relaxed life. However, if you started trading last week and you plan to quit your job in six months, because you anticipate being rich enough to buy a Ferrari, you are delusional.

This is a career, not a get rich quick scheme. If you want to be rich quick hit the casinos. You have a better chance of winning there.

2. Fear of Losing

From a young age, we are taught that money is important. That without money you have no real value. We are conditioned into believing, that to be successful when we grow up, we must have lots of money. This in turn causes people to be afraid of losing money. This is because the reverse is also true. If you lost money then you are a failure as it is the opposite of making money. This in turn leads to some newbie traders being afraid to pull the trigger and actually taking a trade.
Some newbie’s trade demo accounts for two years, never summoning the courage to open a live account. Some newbie traders with live accounts panic whenever they enter a trade and, in turn, make rash decisions.

Take a look at people like Richard Branson, Donald Trump, Alan Sugar and Warren Buffet. These guys are all billionaires (or close enough to it) and each of them has failed many times. Richard Branson has spearheaded many failed ventures. Did those failures set him back though? Hell no! The man is going to start flying people to space at $200k per head, next year, with Virgin Galactic.

I think losing some money to the markets is actually beneficial. It teaches you some very important lessons. What is damaging is the fear of losing money. The fact that you think about it puts you at much greater risk of it actually happening. You have to trade with a positive attitude. So get rid of those fears and worries, they will not do you any good.

The truth is you are going to lose money to the markets, it’s unavoidable. Every professional trader has lost money. Not every trade will be profitable. The market simply doesn’t always work in your favour, and there are times, especially as a newbie, that you will be stung. If you end up blowing your first live account… so be it. As long as you pick yourself up and try again, you will be a better trader for it. I blew two accounts before I started trading profitably.

3. The Need to be Right

This is a good one. Tom opens his platform and enters a dumb, baseless, long trade. He targets 100 pips and has a 50 pip stop loss. The trade goes against him immediately.

It goes down, first ten pips, then twenty pips, and then thirty pips. When it reaches fourty pips, Tom decides he doesn’t want to lose another trade and moves his stoploss down.

The price keeps falling and Tom continues to move his stop.

100
120
150……

Eventually Tom closes out his trade and he has lost a huge portion of his account.

Tom was not able to accept that he has taken a losing trade. He kept pushing the stop down in the hope that it would eventually turn around. The need to be right is an account killer.

4. Being Undisciplined

I saved this one for last because, even though it is one of the most common and dangerous pitfalls, it is rarely discussed. A trader who lacks discipline can never make it in this business. Many traders are guilty of lacking discipline for many different reasons.

The main culprits are what I like to call ‘System Jumpers’. These are traders that are constantly tweaking and changing their trading methods. These traders do not realize that learning to trade a system efficiently takes time.

System Jumpers are traders who lack the discipline to stick to, and learn how to trade, a system. They try it for a week and when it doesn’t work they jump to the next system or method.

Another common action of an undisciplined trader is abandoning a perfectly good trading method. Every trading method has periods in which it performs below average. My trading method averages 80% winning trades however some months it drops down to 60%. This is because market conditions change. No matter how versatile a method is it cannot perform, at peak efficiency in all market conditions. A true trader has the discipline to stick it out through the hard times.

If you like this post leave a comment please.

:vidcourse: