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Why the “Holy Grail” of Forex Trading Doesn’t Exist, and What to Do About It…

Posted by Nick 5 Comments

Guest blog post by Kris Matthews (http://tradeforexfundamentally.com)

Something that really humors me is the human tendency to search for the “holy grail,” the “magic bullet,” the “surefire strategy” that will bring them profits no matter what, and not require them to even think. However, when asked whether certain traders believe it exists, they say “No” on a conscious level but subconsciously are looking for that invincible, plug-and-play strategy. I don’t want to sound like I’m better than those people because I went through that too, and to this day, occasionally I still can’t resist reading about some latest hot-shot forex trading strategy some guru came out with that pulls in 1,000 pips per week—we’re all just wired to want to believe these things.

Why if there is a holy grail strategy, it’s only a temporary “drug”

Nick mentions something in his ebook, “The NickB Method: Discover Advanced Price Action Analysis” that completely resonates with me:

“…systems are limited to the market conditions that spawned them. Systems do not adapt to changing market conditions.”

When you see the outrageous claims of making $50,000 in one month, the guru selling the course may not be lying to you—it may be true that the system performed so well—in that market period. Markets change and what may have worked very well in one environment may become obsolete in another very quickly. This still doesn’t stop certain price patterns from appearing, and may lead to addictions of putting on trades to get quick profits, just like drugs. As you can see, the market is ever changing and no “quick-fix” is going to work. The only way to win is to adapt to its changes.

The only way to win consistently

After realizing that markets change and no static “holy grail” strategy will do, the next logical question is, “if I can’t win every single time how do I come close?” Let’s expand on the principle of adapting to the market in a more practical manner.

To adapt means that you recognize when the market is changing its behavior and when a given system or strategy is no longer likely to work, and replacing or adding to your system something that functions well in the new environment. Here are some clues that you can observe on a price chart for when this is happening:

  1. The average daily range (ADR) is changing dramatically. One of the biggest causes of losing trades is a trader’s misjudgment of volatility. If a trader is trying to capture a large move but price has been confined in a range for the last few weeks with an ADR of 60 pips compared to its usual 160, then most trades are not going to be profitable. If the ADR changes dramatically from its normal value at which your forex trading strategy is profitable, it’s a good sign that the market has changed.
  2. Price strongly breaks out from a range formed over a long time period. When price is confined to a sideways range for a while, the market participants are basically either unsure of the future or are content with the current price range and are not comfortable putting on new positions until some big stimulus acts on the market such as surprising fundamental news. When a stimulus finally does occur and you see a strongly bullish or bearish set of candles indicating that either the bulls or bears are in control then perhaps the market environment is changing from one of ranging to trending. In that case a trend-trading system is more likely to be profitable.
  3. Price faces indecision or retraces after a very strong directional move. Markets move in cycles from ranging to trending to ranging to trending. After price has made its upward run, for example, to a level where the bulls are either satisfied with the current level or are not convinced that price is likely to go up to higher levels, or the bears begin to think that price is oversold, the market may sell off or engage in ranging price action. Either of these is not good for an upward trend trading strategy because the market environment has changed.


GBP/JPY Weekly Analysis (Wk Strt Apr/4/10)

Posted by Nick 38 Comments

Hey guys,

Here is this weeks weekly analysis guys. Hope everybody had a great Easter break! I need to update this analysis a little later with some more constant lines as I mention in the video.

One thing I do not mention in the video is the possible reversal setup forming on G/Y right now. The candle closes in GMT 1 hour (from the time of writing this post) and you could possibly trade it as a reversal if it breaks a significant high. Below is an image showing the possible reversal set-up based on my method.

gbp/jpy reversal

I would probably place the significant high at 142.75 and enter a long on the break of that. However, this is not decided yet I might change my mind after this candle closes. I want to see how the candle closes and how the price reacts if the reversal begins. Please refer to the free NickB method e-Book if you need to know how to trade reversals and how to set a significant high/low.

Anyway here is the rest of the weekly analysis guys.

Sorry, this video is broken. Please email support if you want us to fix it.

Weekly Wrap-Up (Wk Strt Feb/7/10)

Posted by Nick 4 Comments

Hey Guys,

2010 is all about bringing my blog back to basics. For all you long term members you will remember my weekly wrap-up videos. When I first started doing the analysis back in Jan 2008 I use to do a weekly wrap-up video. It was basically a wrap-up of NickB method trades for the week. Well I think it was an important part to the blog so here are wrap-up videos again.

There wasn’t any scalp breaks but the video is probably worth watching. Weekly analysis is coming up next guys.

Free NickB Method Q&A Video

Posted by Nick 17 Comments

Hey Guys,

I had a horrible Christmas, I somehow caught the flu (no not swine flu) and have been in bed most of the time. Sorry I haven’t been able to get this video up sooner guys. So here is a belated Merry Christmas and in case I am still sick in a few days Happy New Year. Anyway, back on point, here is a cool new Q&A video. In this video I answer several questions relating to my method in detail.

Let me know if you like it by leaving a comment below. Also let me know if you have any other questions I can answer in the next video.

Free Online Forex Trainning & A Free e-Book

Posted by Nick 21 Comments

Hey guys,

Last week I wrote a post about a free webinar and e-Book release happening this week. In this post I will go over exactly how the free e-Book and webinar will be released. First off let’s talk about the webinar.

I thought a little more about this and I realized it makes absolutely no sense to do the webinar on Wednesday night as very few people will attend. Also my Christmas schedule has suddenly filled up. For these reason instead of a webinar I will do this:

  1. I wan’t everybody to submit as many questions as they want on Price Action Analysis/Candlestick Analysis as a comment to this post.
  2. I will compile all the questions and choose the most common ones.
  3. I will then shoot a detailed video answering all the questions in detail.

To be honest I actually think this will work much better than an actual webinar. The benefits are:

  • I will have time to properly think about and answer the question in as much detail as possible.
  • Progress will not be slowed by people asking dumb questions (trust me there are always plenty of people who slow down webinars).
  • I will have much more time to find proper examples on my chart to illustrate my explanations.

So if you have any Price Action Analysis/Candlestick Analysis questions please leave a comment asking them. That way I can include your question in the online training video. I am specifically looking for questions based on what I wrote int he latest NickB Method 2010 edition free eBook

As for the free 15min method eBook that will be released at the end of the week.

This eBook will be the start of a brand new method. I will be calling it the NickB Trend Scalper Method. Just a little disclaimer about the eBook though. My editor is on holiday at the moment so she cannot edit this eBook. I will release it anyway and have it edited later. So please be prepared for some grammatical errors. I spent my last three years of high school on a laptop trading, not listening to my English teacher. So my grammar is horrible to say the least.

Hope you guys dont mind the change in plans and I hope everybody has a great Christmas. Remember to ask your Price Action Analysis/Candlestick Analysis questions.

How to Become My Free Forex Mentee

Posted by Nick 173 Comments

Guys I am very sorry you got directed to this post again. We are doing some upgrades and a glitch in the system sent out an auto-email for this post. This is an old post and the free mentoring offer is closed (until next week anyway when I get two new students). Sorry again.

Hi Guys,

Back in September, on this blog, I offered a chance to win 2 months free mentoring with me. The whole thing went amazingly well. Over 200 people entered for the chance to win. I was only going to pick 1 student but in the end I picked 2. I really enjoyed the whole mentoring process it was a lot of fun!

Since I enjoyed the mentoring a lot I want tooo….. you guessed it, do the whole thing again!

However, this time it will be way better than before. Towards the end of January next year I want to take on a small group of students (2-4) for 3 months of intense mentoring.

So right now I am giving 2 lucky readers the chance to win 3 months of FREE mentoring with me! I will take you under my wing and teach you how to trade the Forex market. This is truly invaluable……

How It Will Work

  1. Three times per week for 2 hours each session over a 2 month period we will meet on Skype.
  2. In these 2 hours I will teach you three trading methods:
    - The NickB Method

    - My New Price action & Candlestick Analysis Method
    - My 15 min chart trading method
  3. By the end of the 3 months you will become a super unstoppable trading Ninja machine.

What You Need

  1. Skype (a free messenger service its sort of like Yahoo messenger or Windows messenger).
  2. A mic so we can talk on Skype.
  3. At the very least some basic Forex knowledge. If you do not now what NFP or a pip is do not bother.

How to Win This Amazing Prize

All you need to do is comment on this post and in 30 words or less tell me why you think you deserve to win. WARNING! be genuine I don’t want any sob stories!

Last time over 50% of the people who entered had over 30 words. So this time I want to make it abundantly clear:

>>30 WORDS OR LESS ACTUALLY MEANS 30 WORDS OR LESS. IF YOU HAVE OVER 30 WORDS YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO WIN.<<

Grab The New NickB Method Free e-Book

Posted by Nick 58 Comments

Ok guys I promised you the e-Book this week and it’s here. Hot off the press the new NickB method e-Book is here. I worked tirelessly this week to get this done by today so I really hope you appreciate it. Without anymore babbling on from me………..

Here it is

It is the first e-Book listed on the page and it has a red heading!

Do you like the e-Book? Do you hate it? Either way please comment below:

New NickB Method e-Book

Posted by Nick 26 Comments

Hey Guys,

The new free NickB Method e-Book is coming out this week.

I will be the 3d edition of the NickB method e-Book. I released the first NickB Method e-Book back in 2007 and it got popular very fast. It made Forex4Noobs a huge site visited by thousands of traders daily. In 2008 I released the second version. Now in 2009 I am releasing the third version. It has been well over a year and a half since the last version of the NickB method e-Book so hopefully this lives up to the anticipation.

One little problem though…. On Saturday I got word back from my proofreaders for the new version of the free NickB method e-Book. They HATED it! Well they actually said it was “ok” but just “ok” is not good enough for me!

The main criticism was that I did not have enough picture examples. So I had a quick run through and put in some more examples and some detailed chart pics explaining everything. Apparently now the proof readers think it’s (these are their words):

“amazing”
“really good”
“truly ground breaking” (yeh this one surprised even me)
“the most amazing book I have ever read. Nick you are the best trader on earth and should be worshiped as such, I bow down to you”…………….. (ok ok I made that one up but the rest are true)

The new version concentrates heavily on:

  1. Reversal trades
  2. Price action
  3. Candlestick analysis.

A lot of the stuff is brand new and had not been talked about before!

Anyway since I have had to do some edits I will be releasing it slightly behind schedule. My editor just got a hold of the e-Book an hour ago so it should be done by the end of the week at the latest. However I am still aiming for release tomorrow or Wednesday. Either way it is coming this week so get ready.

I will keep everyone posted.

NickB Method Course Update: How, When, Where

Posted by Nick 5 Comments

Hey Guys,

The video course updates are ready to go. However, there are a few things you need to know.

This post explains in detail how and when the NickB Method updates will be released. Please read it in full! If I get any emails asking questions that are answerd below they will be ignored!

Some Changes

There will be a few differences though. The old videos were shot in 640px by 480px resolution and the new ones have been shot in 800px by 600px.

‘px’ or ‘pixels’ are a unit of measurement in digital imaging. It’s all very boring stuff that you don’t need to know. What you do need to know is that the old videos are smaller than the new ones.

I made the new videos bigger so I could fit more of my chart onto the video. Eventually plan to re-shoot the entire course is 800×600 resolution. It will make for a much better course as I won’t be trying to squash everything onto the on small chart.

Anyway because of this change we might run into some problems with the current video course software. I doubt we will, but I have never used 800×600 vids so it could cause issues on some browsers.

So what I am going to do is a scaled released.

Scaled Release Plan

  1. Tomorrow morning I will give access 10% of course owners access to the new videos. Throughout the next two days I will monitor and see if all goes well.
  2. Provided all goes well (which I am sure it will) Sunday morning I will give an additional 40% of user’s access to the new videos. For the next two days I will monitor the situation so I can be sure that we have no issues.
  3. Again, if all goes well on Tuesday morning I will release them videos fully to all course users.

Why a  Scaled Release?

With a scaled release If something does go wrong I will have 10% of users email me with the issue rather than 100%. This allows me to quickly deal with the problem, and not have to go through and respond to hundreds of separate emails.

    The other advantage this is having all users’ access the videos at the same time might cause a massive slowdown in site speed and could even crash the server.

    Again this is boring stuff you don’t need to know. But, for all you inquisitive guys and girls out there….. Websites are hosted on servers. Servers are special computers that allow the storage of a websites files and allow people around the world to access those files. You can buy really cheap servers for $5 a month. These are fine for very small sites as very few people will be accessing a small sites files. However when you have thousands of people downloading big files like course videos a cheap server won’t cut it. The server computer hosting the files just isn’t powerful enough to allow thousands of users’ access at once. This is when you need a big powerful server which hosting companies charge a lot of money for.

    Forex4Noobs is already on a powerful dedicated server as we have thousands of visitors a day. However, just to be safe I have upgraded my hosting package to a bigger server to cope with the demand. I would still rather monitor the situation and make sure my current server can cope with the demand. Again I am sure everything will be fine but having 10% (followed by 40%) of users access the course to start with will allow me to be sure the server at its current level can cope with the demand. If it can’t then I can at least upgrade my server before allowing more users to access the course. This will prevent crashes that will shutdown forex4noobs entirely for hours.

    The first 10% and the following 40% of users will be selected completely randomly. I have no intention of selecting individual users so please do not ask. If you’re not one of the first selected sorry. But do not ask me to be given access before anybody else. I see that as dishonest and selfish. And if you ask I will put you right at the bottom of the list. Rules are rules guys, please wait your turn and please be patient.

    It’s not only Forex4Noobs that does scaled releases. Huge companies with hundreds of thousands of users do it to. Companies like Twitter and Aweber. It just allows them to deal with major issues quickly and efficiently.

    Passwords

    One more IMPORTANT thing guys, if you purchased the course but have forgotten your password. It should be the same as your forum username and password. However if you can’t access the course and you can’t recover your password please do not email my personal email address. Please follow these simple steps and allow up to 24 hours for a response (although it should take less than 4 hours).

    1. Go to the Contact Us page and choose the ‘video course passwords’ option from the ‘Subject’ drop down field.
    2. In the email please provide me with:
    • Your PayPal transaction or receipt number for the purchase.
    • The date and if possible time of your purchase.
    • (If you purchased the course before July 1st 2009) I need your forum user name.
    • (If you purchased the course after July 1st 2009) I need is your PayPal email address.

    This will make it easy for me to give you a new password. If you do not have all that information please give me as much information as you can.

    Ok that wraps it up. Thanks guys!