Midday Forex price action analysis – 2016-09-01 (Potential setups on USD/CAD)

UPDATE: The EUR/USD long was triggered due to the ISM Manufacturing PMI’s surprise fall below 50. I do not think anyone saw that coming. Since the entry was triggered by a news based spike, and these spikes tend to retrace quickly, I am closing this trade early.

In today’s analysis I spot one potential trade, a USD/CAD daily chart short.

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6 Responses

  • elvie says:

    Hi Nick,
    I have a question, I actually spotted the same set up for EURUSD and USDCAD, but I also noticed that there are news releases for USD’s ISM manufacturing PMI & ISM price paid. so, just before the news releases I decided to delete both my limit orders for both pairs. and then later the news actually push the price way off in my direction. So, I was wondering, was deleting my limit order before the news is it the right thing to do or next time should I just completely ignore the news?.

    Thx

    Elvie

    • Nick says:

      Well, my view is that when price forms indecision right before major news, it is for a reason. Banks and hedge funds pay analysts and news services millions per year so they can know what way a report is going to come out. So they know their is a 90% chance that NFP will come out negative, or that ISM will come out positive. With this information banks and hedge funds position themselves to profit from these reports, and by doing so we see indecision form, and later a reversal. So when I see a huge reversal forming before major news, I always think to myself, well news is going to push price that way.

      So if you can manage the risk, if you can handle the loss, and if you know what you are doing…I think keeping your limit orders in could be profitable.

  • Simon says:

    Thank you nick..

    usdcad is still selling from nfp. im still in it.
    your support and resistance strategy is really good.. Higher time frames like H4 n daily are less stressful.
    Thank you for opening my eye with trading

  • Tebogo says:

    Thanks a lot for your price action video set up,my trading knowledge has advanced a lot from watching them.Keep on inspiring a lot of traders and may God bless you!