Forex price action analysis – December 17th 2014

In this analysis I will be covering two pairs, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. If you want to see my support and resistance areas for these pairs please check out the support and resistance areas section.

Also, as of last week I have finished trading for the year. Usually, if I meet my minimum yearly target I take the last few weeks of December off.

I will still be watching my charts but I will most likely not take a trade. However, if a see a picture perfect set up I may be tempted to jump in.

GBP/USD Analysis

The 1.5720 support area acted very well as resistance last week. Price is currently forming on it but the preceding trend is a little too small so I wont be trading it. However, if price moves away from the 1.5720 and then comes back down, I might take a long reversal. Also, if price moves below the 1.5720 by a significant amount and then back up, I will use it as resistance for a short reversal.

I am also closely watching the 1.5620 and 1.5540 levels for indecision if price moves down there.

For short trades I am watching the 1.5820 level. When price pushed down to this level on the 7th of November it got turned around very quickly. Since then, buyers have found it hard to reach the 1.5820. If price moves up to the 1.5820 I will be watching closely for indecision so I can take a short reversal.

I am also watching the 1.5910 for short reversals.

AUD/USD Analysis

At the moment AUD/USD is hitting four your lows so it is getting difficult to place support and resistance areas on this pair. Yesterday I placed the 0.8150 based on data from May 2010 and it seems like the area held well. There was even a trade from the level on the 2HR chart but I skipped it as I am finished trading for the year.

Even though the 0.8150 held, we need to remember that this support area is more than four years old. So it is not as reliable as a fresh support area. The fact that we had a recent bounce from the 0.8150 makes it much more reliable though.

The lower area at 0.8070 has has no recent bounce so this area is still risky. Please keep this in mind when trading.

I will be looking for long reversal trades from the 0.8150 and the 0.8070. As price has just moved away from the 0.8150, it will need to come back down and form indecision again before I would consider trading.

For short trades I will be watching the 0.8215 and the 0.8280. Both the 0.8215 and the 0.8280 have prove to be good support and resistance areas recently.

Any questions?

I hope you found this analysis useful, if you have any questions please ask using the comment form below.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

23 thoughts on “Forex price action analysis – December 17th 2014
  1. A bit of proof reading might be in order Nick. “I will covering three pairs, GBPUSD & AUDUSD” (err, that’s two).

    “For your lows” (presumably four year lows)

  2. Excellent work… I’ll be keeping an eye on those price levels. Also Nick a quick one when will you open up the advanced course? I want to plan and save towards that so I don’t miss out again. I want to take the plunge.

  3. everyone makes a few spelling mistakes, no big deal. Nick, I was wondering what trade sizes you do, do you trade full lots? How did you actually do for the year? What goals did you set? And has switching to 8hr charts helped your trading?

    1. I switched to 8 hour charts two or more years ago. This year I also started trading 6hr and 12hr, it has helped a lot.

      I do not really discuss how many lots I trade. It is personal information. Suffice to say I make my living primarily from Forex trading and I am very comfortable.

      My goals are just to improve my performance each year. This year my performance went down compared to last year. However, I feel this had to do with the period of extreme low volatility we experienced for several months.

      Last year I won 81% of trades, this year 74%. I was still profitable though and I am still happy with my results.

  4. Hi Nick,

    First off, thanks for your great site, I really appreciate all the information you have on it!

    I’m curious about your “yearly target” and how you go about setting that and thinking about it. I understand this will be different for a hobby trader like me, but I haven’t thought about these things yet, so I’d appreciate any insight and/or advice you may have on this topic.

    1. It is pretty simple really. I take my winning percentage and the account growth percentage from last year and try to beat it the coming year.

      I realise the winning percentage is not the best metric to determine success. If I win 99% of trades and make 1 pip per trade it is still worse than winning 60% and making 1000 pips per trade. However, my money management rules help keep my gains consistent regardless of the amount of pips.

      This year my win rate was actually lower than last year. Last year I won 81% of trades, this year 74%. This was due to the extreme low volatility we encountered this year. All in all it was a good thing because it prompted me to chance my strategy for the better.

  5. Hi Nick,

    I’ve been watching your videos (every so often) for months now. Like many of your members, I appreciate your videos and your selfless effort to share your knowledge and skills.

    Your videos give me confidence in my own skills because you say things that I’ve learned through my own effort and persistence. I studied forex for 2 years (I’ve been unemployed longer than that) But I am not where I want to be in my trading. I’ve won and lost trades; but at the end, my micro account has stayed the same for 2-3 months now. I need to decrease the number of bad trades I take. I don’t know what I am doing wrong.

    I keep it simple – I only use S/R areas and price action; I pay attention to candlestick patterns. But I am not where I want to be in my trading. My dream is to one day be as good as you are. How much is your advance course. How long is it for? Please send me details.

    I really want to be good at forex, but I have hit a wall I don’t know how to go thru. Please help me.

    1. I do not really want to advertise the course on the blog, I find that tacky. I am not sure when I will be accepting new members. however, if you have any questions about the course add me to Skype and ask. Skype name is “nickbencino”

  6. Hey Nick,

    I have noticed in your videos you take trades while the reversal confirmation candle is still open, do you find this riskier than waiting for the candle to close and confirm the reversal? or is it worth the risk rather than having a potentially larger stoploss with a smaller comparative target?

    One last thing, When you trade the 8 hour charts how do you trade the 3rd block, as for me in AUS the times are 9am, 5pm, 1am. The 1am would be brutal to wake up to trade each night? At the moment as I work full-time the daily charts work just fine for me but I was just curious. Also how reliable is the 12 hour chart?

  7. Hi Nick

    I hope you can help me. I’m a beginner and have been reading through the basics section of the site, and am a little confused regarding higher highs and lower lows. When referring to a candlestick making a higher high or lower low, does that mean compared solely to the previous candle, or within a specific time range.

    Any help would be much appreciated.

    Andy

  8. Hi there Nick

    I’m a bit confused regarding higher highs and lower lows. When referring to a candlestick making a higher high or lower low, is that compared solely to the previous candle, or is it within a specific time range.

    Many thanks

    Andy

  9. hello nick
    my question is what is your money management. Also what is you risk:reward? Did you risk same amount of lots every time?