GBP/JPY Kicking My Butt……. but Adapting is The Key to Success

Hi Guys,

GBP/JPY has not been reacting well to our scalp lines recently. So obviously it’s time to throw my method away and go find another method…..

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Ok, hopefully that got rid of the 95% of trader who will never succeed in Forex! Thank you for being one of the 5% who stayed.

I am going to think this one through a little and discuss some simple concepts that will bring my method back to it’s 80% win rate. Before that though, I just want to inject some logic into this situation.

For all of 2007 and 2008 and up to May of 2009 this method has a 70%-80%. If like me you’ve been trading it since that time these few recent losses would mean very little. There are always going to be bad periods with any trading method. Successful traders ride them out while everybody else abandons ship.

Ok logical stuff done, now onto what we can do to optimize the method.

Adaptability

I have discussed a few times before so I won’t go in to too much detail suffice to say to succeed in this business you need to be able to adapt. Changing market conditions or world economic conditions can have a drastic long-term effect on price action. Recently we have seen drastic changes in the world’s economic stability. These changes are reflected by a change to erratic and jumpy price action.

So what do we do? Should we just quit trading?

NO! Of course not.

We should adapt to the new market conditions. Forget about the silly 95% who left at the start of this blog post. You and me are part of the 5% of successful traders. What we need to do now is analyze the market and figure out how to optimize the method.

This probably won’t be easy as several changes to how the method is traded may be needed. However, some of us have already started optimizing the method so we’re half way there.

Metalhawk who you may know from the site has done some very extensive back testing. He went over his records and compiled a list of all trades take since mid 2008. Using the 5 min chart he then tested how well the trades would have worked with different targets and stops. Surprisingly the results conclusively show that on scalps the best target and stop since mid 2008 until now for scalp trades is:

Target = 85 pips
Stop =  65 pips

Trading completely manually this target and stop combination would give you a 62.5% win rate. You’re right that doesn’t sound great. However, once you throw in some discretion the win rate would be up in the high 70% or even 80% area.

It seems pretty clear by those statistics that I should officially change the target and stop for my method. I am currently testing to see how effective this would be though.

I am also currently reviewing:

1. How I select scalp lines I might be making a few changes to optimize lines.
2. The addition of trend lines to identify stronger lines.
3. Different pairs that can be traded instead of GBP/JPY

Metalhawk is also looking into which sessions statistically have the most losing trades. This would help us know when to steer clear of the market.

The point is that just because the method is no longer working at peak efficiency we shouldn’t just abandon it. Instead we should adapt it to the changing market conditions. Adapting is one of things that separates the winners from the losers.

Ok now here is the most important part. A new e-Book is coming very soon with an updated version of the method.

If you want to discuss this comment below guys:

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77 thoughts on “GBP/JPY Kicking My Butt……. but Adapting is The Key to Success
  1. Nick, For all of 2007, 2008, and up to May of 2009 the markets have been in risk/safety mode. With economic signs of life the shift in currencies will be more toward risk/fundamentals. I have been studying price action lately and find it very compatible with your scalp lines. The difference is the lines are used as reference areas to watch for price action signals and if a signal appears then take a trade.

    1. @ Trade451:

      I haven’t spoken to you in a while. August has been busy so I haven’t had much time for the chatroom.

      I agree with what you said. Price action is the key to success with any trading method. Identifying when a line break is actually a line break can turn a mechanically traded 60% accurate method to a 80% accurate method. The reality though is many traders cannot watch price action and until now my method has worked well mechanically.

      At the end of the day if you know price action my method still works well. However, I want to have a better balance between mechanical and discretion.

  2. A) Great post, all too true. It’s encouraging to see someone with a trading strategy that’s had this much success, willing to turn it upside down when it’s no longer performing well (or at least tweak it a bit).

    B) I’m a bit surprised that Metalhawks research didn’t suggest smaller TP/SL’s. Have you looked into that at all?

    C) I was in Edinburgh a million years ago during June, and I asked “when is the best time to visit here”, and they said “end of August is when we have a big festival, and there’s great music and shows and tons of stuff to do”. So, I’m envious. Have a great time.

  3. Nick! One cannot become a Martial Arts expert without years of practice, training and getting “hurt” many, many times. To become an “expert” requires hours of dedication and a strong mindset to achieve that success. It’s not for the weak minded.

    I look at Forex Trading with the same mental attitude and, I know that I will succeed, eventually. Forex has it’s own way of dealing the killer blows, and for the ones that can’t take it, better to get out now……!

    My thanks go out to people like you that are willing to absorb the hits, then get back in the ring and start again. So keep up the good work for all of us who follow you and, wish you success.

    Bye the way. Based on your methodology, i’m developing my own technique. If it works well, then I will share it, later, with whomever wishes to try it.

    Bon chance!

    1. @ graham:

      You soudn like my Krav Maga teacher.

      You’re absolutely right though. Let us know how your method goes!

  4. Hey Nick I agree with you about adaptability and adjusting. I have been trading the s/r line method with you for about a year now and it clear works. Even in these mkt conditions. I think if we look at the recent group of failed trades we will see that based on your ebook and video course they were actually NO TRADES. The break of 153.40 was mid ny session in a sideways moving, consolidating mkt. There was no strong downward move and then break. The break of 152.30 was again during NY session with three consecutive sideways candles prior to the break and right before US new home sales data release. Thats a no trade as well based on the information on forex4noobs. I say this to say I dont think the method needs much of an adjustment but we have to take in to account all relevant factors when judging whether to enter or not. Over the past couple of months I have managed to trade with above 90% avg by just sticking to the plan. Yes there have been less valid setups to trade but not neccessarily a lower percentage of winning trades. The economic environment has changed which should make us all scrutinize the trades we take that much more but changing the method, tp/sl or pair during the difficult times will not allow us to stay the course until “normal” trading condition come back (as it says in the ebook as well). just my thoughts…

    1. @ I.A.

      You’re right some of them should probably have been no trades. To be honest with the changing market conditions the rules of the method got blurred. It is time to set them out again and update some of them. It has been two years after all!

  5. hey nick, i’ve been following ur method too, this thing happen again and again: the stochastic O (10,3,3) influent the success rate of the breakout, don enter if 5 min or 30 minit stoch value in os and ob, it tent to retrace when the price is to cheap or too expensive. hopefully my information help a bit.

  6. Nick – great honest post, thank you.

    Great leaders know when times are changing and adapt, as you say.

    The ability to continually adapt, evolve and innovate in any market, whether FX or otherwise is the mark of great leaders and of success.

    Look forward to this journey with you and the crew.

    Also thanks to Metalhawk for the hard work!

    FlashBack

    1. @ Flashback:

      Thanks man.

      And everybody should be thanking Metalhawk. Going over 1 years worth of trades is quite tedious but he did it and he chose to help everyone by making the info public. He is very cool and deserves a lot of thanks!

  7. Hi Nick,

    Please don;t be frustrated, many GJ Trading system got stopped out during March – August 2009,.

    Just my thought :

    1. At Nick Scalp-line (4H Inpact Zone), may be we should check :

    – It will get a Break or Pull Back, I prefer using 4H bar Straddle Trading system.

    – Check, If there is Uptrust or reverse Uptrust at Scalp-line to confirm if the Price pattern will be Break or Pull back.(Volume Spread analysis)

    Go ahead, I am with you

    Cheers,

    1. @Andi:

      Yeh the pull-backs are the biggest issue. This is why expanding the stops seems to work. Generally pull-backs are under 65 pips (they use to be under 50 pips) so changing the stops helps protect from pull-backs.

      Thanks Andi!

  8. I’m with you Nick. Keep it coming. In all the books I’ve read they say exactly what you are talking about. No system is forever and they all need adapting.

    1. @ Muskrat:

      In 2006 I changed my method from trading GBP/USD to GBP/JPY. I use to target 40 pips on G/U with a stop of about 30 pips. All of a sudden market conditions changed and the effectiveness went down. While the method essentially remained the same I made some changes. It looks like its time to change again!

  9. Been using the cross of the tenkan on the kijun the last few weeks….ichimoku chart combined with a double lined stoch. Been keeping it to 10-20 pips a shot. It’s kept me out of some nasty stuff and got me some pips. Tonights 152.30 has been a bugger… the big triangle / 2 month channel on the 4 hr chart looks like it may have a pull back coming. I’m being very careful at 152.30..it doesn’t want to break 152.15. We shall see soon

  10. I’ve been burnt by the last couple of G/J scalps (one shouldn’t have entered and one just didn’t work) so didn’t trade that most recent one thankfully.

    I guess it’s just a porcess that all new traders go though but I am kind of despondant about my trading at the moment. Your blog post arrived at the right time … it reminded me that even successful traders have times where they need to take a step back and reassess their method for changing market conditions.

    I also really appreciate that you are upfront about adapting your method :)

    Arrggghh better stop now before peeps start thinking I like Aussies. Hahahaha!!

    1. @ Twinky:

      You don’t like Aussies? I thought all New Zealanders loved us…… actually I thought they even envied us. We have all that wide open grazing land perfect for huge flocks of sheep. And we all know how you NZ’s love sheep!

      Twinky don’t give up it’s a hard time for most of us. If we see this through we will reach the good times again and then you can line your pockets with pips.

  11. Nick what a great post…I’m a newbie and have been floundering around like a fish out of water. I have been trying to trade since May this year and just cannot seem to get it right. Your post is heartening in that if professionals like yourself have had a difficult time trading lately then I know that its not all me…I just gotta get a solid method going.

    …I’m a expat. Kiwi

    1. @ Hung Lo:

      Arrogant? With a name like Hung Lo(w) you shouldn’t be calling anybody else arrogant. Don’t they say that men who brag about their ahmmm ‘size’ are just compensating?

      As for apologising……. not on your life. I have a method and I share it. If you decide to trade it and you lose pips it’s your fault. I am not here to coddle or babysit losers who cannot take responsibility for their own trades.

      The signals on this blog are a guide posted weekly for people who trade my method. This way they can compare their analysis to mine and make sure they got it right.

      For two years this blog has been making very consistent profits. Now, after two months of breaking even or being slightly down idiots like you come out of the woodwork. Instead of asking me to apologize you should thank me for the two years of consistent profits I brought the Forex world. Furthermore, you should thank me for the endless amount of my free time that I give away to help new traders make it in this tough business. Look around, there is no other site that offers advanced Forex education for free like I do.

      The only thing about you that makes me want to apologize is your apparent lack of intelligence. I am sorry to the world that some members of the human race can be so blatantly idiotic…. I truly am.

      You don’t like me or this site? Do me a favour hold down the ‘Ctrl’ key and press ‘F4’!

  12. Nick, all what you said is true and thanks for the honest words. We are waiting for any modification and for any new ebook to read.

    Good luck …

  13. Hey Nick,

    Warning: long post and some fundamental analysis below :)

    In addition to using your method I track the fundamentals pretty closely. In particular, I have always found the SP500 futures to be very useful in confirming your scalp / S-R Line entries.

    Now we all know that GBP/JPY is somewhat violent as compared to the other yen pairs, but recently in this week the yen pairs, and also some USD pairs, have NOT been adhering to general fundamental principles. I was extremely confounded, if not annoyed to see GJ gaining 40 pips every 5 minutes while the major equity markets were clearly in the red.

    Now, I’m sure everyone is aware that this week, and the 2 next are crucial for the state of the global economy. Firstly, September traditionally is the slowest month of the year, if not the most bearish. Secondly, a huge number of traders believe that we have a correction due. Surprisingly the major markets are techinically still on a rally, having just ended their 7th day in a row in the green. The problem is, the economical data simply does not support this. Unemployment is still increasing, and the US budget deficit is stil burning the economy. In my humble opinion, it seems that traders are being overoptimistic, buying on high oil prices and whatever positive economic data coming out at the moment. However, many other traders are not so sure.

    This is reflected in the daily chart of G/J itself. The ADR for the past week is only approximately 200, as compared to 300 we are so used to. We are seeing more reversals in the 4H chart, where it is no longer unusual to see candles changing colours by the candle. I take this to mean that traders are very undecided, and are profit taking early. No one really dares to follow up on a trend anymore.

    The bottomline is, I would stay out of this market. There is simply too much uncertainty. The scalp line which failed, I couldn’t resist. Everything was perfect, I watched it break, retrace and used the line as resistance, checked fundamentals, everything. However, almost immediately after entering, it went in the opposite direction and never looked back.

    This isn’t a problem with Nick’s method. Its simply a market where indecision, and very very daring scalpers, thrive. Trend and swing traders are having a tough time. Its impossible to predict the market anymore, regardless of how many experts say they can.

    Just my 2 cents :)

    1. @Kean

      I find EUR/JPY and GBP/USD are predictable at the moment and they follow scalp lines well. I agree with a lot of what your saying about G/Y though it is getting tough to trade and it is becoming very erratic. As for it being impossible to trade at the moment? Thats another story.

      As for fundamentals. Does the market ever listen to them? As far back as 1 year ago you would see data come out positive for the U.S. but the USD takes a dive or it coming out negative and the USD shooting up. Putting aside the fact that most of the fundamental figures are bullshit figures anyway the market hasn’t really paid much attention for some time. I heard somebody rave about a positive turn in the global economy because house sales are up in the U.S. Well generally that would be good news but when you consider you can now buy a house in the U.S. for $50k I don’t think home sales really means that much. Fundamentals are subjective!

  14. Hung Lo ? WTF ? You need to get a life – no apologies are owed – of course you made some bad trades and now want to place blame on someone else.

    Kean – what fundamentals ? For the last 2 years this market has ignored fundamentals and embraced Risk/Safety. As the economies level out it will shift to Risk/Fundamentals. I believe G/J is operating under those parameters now and will do so until the true natures of the market reveals itself. TBG, Muggers, and I have been doing price action trades based with good success. We look for price action signals at the s&r or scalp lines rather than just trading the lines. Equity markets are not fundamentals but correlations that do not always work – watch the China CSI 300. If there is a correction then it will be negative for yen cross pairs and good for dollar yen.

  15. @Nick – I must add this comment. In learning the methods of price action I have in fact without trying VALIDATED your scalp lines therfore I must conclude the scalp lines and method ARE still very much valid.

  16. Trader451 – I apologise if I may have come across a bit straightforward. I think I may have misrepresented myself. I may have used the word “fundamentals” too broadly.

    The gist of the matter is I agree with everything you said in your reply to me. Yes I understand that people flee risky assets and anchor their money in the yen and USD (although the USD may be losing its seat as a safe asset) when uncertain. What i’m trying to say is that even if there is a correction, my mind tells me that yes, yen pairs will suffer, but i’m not so sure anymore.

    Just to clarify to everyone, yes equity markets are merely correlations, that do not always work. What is certain is that I have a lot of learning to do and thank you for your comment.

  17. Yeah Aussies suck. They come over here pretending to like us kiwis but really they are just here hankering after our lovely soft, fuffy sheep …

  18. @Kean – oh no – no apologies needed. We all learn together – it has not been easy on any of us that is for sure. Keep your comments coming as we all learn from the discussions.

  19. Hey Nick,

    As i’ve said to Trader 451 – I apologise for having used the term “fundamentals” too broadly.

    Why I regard fundamentals as pertinent to us – because one half of our pair, the JPY, is a safe asset. As I’ve said until very recently I noticed that G/J mirrors SP500, only because as it falls people abandon their risky assets and buys yen.

    Don’t get me wrong, I am not a fundamentalist. I merely look to market conditions to reconfirm my entries using your method.

    Nick, as for your example with USD, it makes perfect sense. Its because as the market goes down, people prefer the safer US bonds, giving the USD a boost, and vice versa.

    As for your example with the new home sales, you are completely right! I didn’t think of it haha!

  20. @Kean – I also watch correlations and fundamentals but I have grown to believe they really are insignificant in the grand scheme of things. Fundamentals are like a ship’s sextant on a cloudy night while price action is like a gps with 6 sattelites. In truth I am growing to believe fundmentals are much like noise because the market is going to go where it wants to go regardless – take a look at the most recent NFP on a higher time and chop off the wicks. It was ir relevant. Just watched UK housing data – it was very good – g/y went down (wtf?). We have to remember the “market makers” whoever they may be are moody and pick and chose what is relevant. In another example my mum wanted to invest in a stock with her church group. They gathered companies 10K’s etc etc. She chose Ford but I used S/R to get her in and got her out with a double. If the company is solid non of that stuff matters.

  21. I think the whole idea of demanding an apology from Nick is just disgraceful! After all of the work he’s put (and continues to put) into this project… Trading decisions are our own responsibility – don’t go blaming someone else – it’s childish.

  22. Thanks for you spirit of moving forward. things will surely become better it only requires a little hand work further.

    quiters never win, success

    1. @Jep:

      Yeh I have had to tweak the method once before. It’s normal for a method to grow and evolve with the market.

  23. @ Nick:

    Do you think that maybe your method is not 100% working now because it is the Summer break?

    Maybe after the Summer break, in September, when everybody is back from vacation and the volume will shot up, your method will come back to the 70% to 80% of success rate.

    I am just sharing my view, I don’t know if you agree.

    MiG

    1. @MiG:

      It’s definitely possible but its really has been shaky for a while now. I think its best to edit the targets slightly and refresh everyone (including myself) on the rules ie. no trading scalps that are 3 weeks old and trading S+R lines not only scalps!

  24. hi nick,

    these are uncertain times since financial crash. I dont think anyone knows where values of currencies should be because of all the bs coming from various central banks.

    stick to your system but perhaps shoot for 30 pips. it seems as if scalping has become order of day as traders grab profits soonest due to uncertainty

    trading is a business where you can easily lose 6 out of 10 trades. if your risk/reward is right you should still come out on top with wins on the other 4 trades.

    changing systems is no answer – the 95% will find this out soon

  25. Hi nick, and the rest of the friends here.can i ask something nick, if your method not working now and you going to think of a new trading method, then does it mean i should not buy the trading video you posted here?since the method not working, then should i wait for your new method out?

    1. @ Lee Cheow Yong:

      You can still buy it. If you buy the NickB method you own it FOR LIFE! That means any updates are included. So when I do a new video coruse all current owners get it at no additional cost.

      Also I am not making a new trading method. I am just changing targets on my current method!

  26. Hi Nick as you know I have been floating around your site for a couple of years or so now. Before I came I used to trade reversals only, you then opened my thinking on breakout trading. About 10 months ago I took a decision to put breakout trading on the back burner and refocus only reversal set ups, these have continued to work well for me. As you know I trade off s/r levels mainly but interestingly do not set pip value stop losses or targets but rather aim for next logical minor/major s/r level. its my opinion that setting stops and targets off s/r levels as well entries copes well with the volatile market recently. Anyway sorry just a ramble. I look forward to the new book with interest.

    cheers rich

    1. @Rich1969:

      Thanks man! That’s what I love to see people who take my method and use aspects of it to build their own.

      I will look into not setting stops and aiming for the next line. Not sure if its something I would release in a e-Book but I would consider experimenting on my own account. Thanks.

  27. Nick, thanks heaps for all the hard work you and MH do and are willing to share.
    Ignore those who try and rattle you… don’t let them see they have succeeded!!

  28. It’s been a rollercoaster ride ,the thing is it could be called good painful training experience.
    Lesson one is ,the market is not personally doing this to me by going the opposite way when ever I enter a trade.

    It is true the market is in chaos ,all the economies are propt up by toy money, Nick I was wondering ,would it be an idea to move to a longer still trading time frame with the NickB method , to reduce the erraticism and smooth trades , ?

    Anyway you do have my respect,
    Damien

    1. @Damien:

      The problem is how long do you go? next step up is the daily and that is way to big! I see what you saying and while it is logical I do not have the patience for daily charts.

  29. Hey Nick,

    Thanks for all of the support you provide. I wouldn’t be in the Forex market at all if I hadn’t learned of your methods and approach to trading.

    I agree that trendlines are a very nice potential addition to your method. When you see a bounce off of not only a scalp line but a corresponding trend line, it adds some good validation to a reversal (or the strength of a break, if the price punches through).

    Cody

    1. @cjgranfl:

      I have to admit I am loving trend lines. My GF introduced me to them and they’re really a lot of fun to use. I never really got them before but now I understand that you need to place the most obvious line because that the line other traders are placing.

  30. NICK, the strategy is working find for me. The issue is the entry. What I do for the entry is go down to the 10minute chart and look for an engulfing candle and wait for directional confirmation before I decide to enter. When I do, my goal is only 20-25 pips. In and Out. I also trade GBP/USD and EUR/JPY. So between them I collect my pips. No Goals – I take what the market gives me.

    Thanks for all your post and knowledge

    1. @OT:

      Trader451 is right you use price action! Looks like you do it instinctively too which means your a natural trader!

  31. Hi Nick,

    BIg time lurkernoob (is there such a word?) here but like Cody here, I’d still be looking at a screen full of indicators and still not know what to do, if not for this site.

    I am not sure if this helps in anyway but I’ve been DEMOing with your method (trying to get it right) and i could get away with 15-20 pips on many occasions because of the erratic movements around the scalp and trend lines. Again, taht’s only DEMO – not sure if it’ll work on the real thing though.

  32. hi nick again.i consider you to be my mentor.so i will stick to you.Up or down, will stick to you and i hope the rest of the buddies here will do the same as i do.
    As Zen Peom has it:

    To follow the path:
    look to the master,
    follow the master,
    walk with the master,
    see through the master,
    become the master.

    So, i still had alot of things to learn from you before i become a master of forex trader myself. :)

    My 2 cents.

  33. Trader451

    I make sure the Engulfing candle is in the direction of the break and is engulfing at least 3 candles. On the 10min chart that is 30 minutes.

    I want to make sure the price will move after the break and not reversed on me.

    Also, be alert of psycological numbers (price ending in 50 or 00)

  34. Trader451

    I make sure the Engulfing candle is in the direction of the break and is engulfing at least 3 candles. On the 10min chart that is 30 minutes.

    I want to make sure the price will move after the break and not reversed on me.

    Also, be alert of psychological numbers (price ending in 50 or 00)

  35. Kudos Nick, I believe 95% of us place a tremendous amount of value into your site and efforts, the other 5% can kiss our ykw. Adaptation is necessary in all parts of life, as it is in Forex. Your site has helped me immensely. So, please, please, please keep up the awesome work!!!

    Patty123

  36. Hey Nick, cant wait for the new e-book.

    Just wanted to say great work, it seems to me that with most methods in trading your method seems to work best when the market is trending. I like to use ADX, center line only, as a trend indicator, I set a level of 30 on the indicator and if the center line is above then it is trending strongly if not the market is choppy and price may be more likely to reverse when s/r is met, seems to work for me, I use it on the daily, 4h, and 1h tfs. This gives me a heads up on what I might do for the trade.

  37. I sometimes wonder where you are getting your scalp lines like the recent 152.30 line. The first short which broke the same day worked beautifully in my opinon. two trend line breaks in a day may be asking a bit much. The fundamentals that you teach work, I am always leery of artificial profit taking schemes like 50 pips for every trade. Targets really should be taken based on candlestick patterns momentum and S/R lines. But a lot of people are not up to that demand so you give them a rule.

    One thing momentum just hasn’t been there lately. My guess is the amount of liquidity is not what it was 6 months ago. Increasing the stops and profit targets makes sense it will keep a trade open longer and wait for the market to move back to the original direction of the break.

    Note to Hung Lo — I bet your more rice than lo mein where it counts. Show the forum some respect the joke goes back to the Ming dynasty get some new material.

    1. @dallia:

      I believe in exiting based on price action too. I honestly think that I got a little too sucked in to trading automatically and I lost my way.

    1. @fx slider:

      Of course it does, I should have known. Thanks for that man, I knew that guy was a tosser from the minute I met him in the chatroom.

  38. Thanks Nick for everything you’re doing for us! I think it’s great that you plan to add trend lines to the method. I have been trading with trend lines this week and it’s been my best week so far (I’m trading GBP/JPY). Trend lines do make a big difference in trading and I recommend everybody watch Fetor’s webinar to get an idea of what you can do with them.

  39. Nick, your method and analysis over the past year have totally changed my trading. I also would give a grateful nod to Fetor whose webinars also gave me a much better understanding of the market.

    I like it simple so it seems to me the only areas to trade are support and resistance. I rarely trade a breakout unless there is a large zone of consolodation and confiremed price action. I much prefer to trade off S or R in the direction of the trend and be happy with a break even stop out or a small loss if I make a bad decision.

    Anyways Nick, just want to say thank you. Your no nonense approach and selfless sharing of knowledge is very much appreciated.

      1. @Everybody (except for Hung Lo):

        Thanks for the kind words and support guys. Good to know my work and the site is appreciated!

  40. Hello, Nick! Spent over 2 years in Isreal, many Moons ago, but never got involved, sadly, with the Krav Mag…… But it does interest me.

    FX Trading: I have been following you and your trading method quite closely and, because of it, have learned to look at trading differently. Hovever, because I have some difficulty with “positioning” the S+R lines correctly, I tried something a little bit different. And, for me, it is developing quite successfully.

    It’s your method, in a sense, but just another way of looking at it.

    Perhaps you could look at it, purely as a professional, and give me your opinion. So can I email you direct , just to keep it personal for now.

    I am an amateur trying to be successful. Thats all!

    sagitaire

  41. Aloha Mr Nick,

    IMHO there is really not that big a change required in adjusting your method – almost none at all. I’ve been doing the following since I “met” you. The following is based on a long position:
    Using the 4H to establish short term trend along with support & resistance…price breaks resistance and I go to 15M to watch price action and look for conformation, either as a retest of support ( if price retests AFTER closing above support) I go long above high of breakout) or if I’m feeling more aggressive, and price action dictates, I enter immediately above the HIGH of the break out bar when it closes. When price reaches my target of 20 pips + spread, I close 80% of my position and move my stop to break even. The 20% rides to my POTENTIAL price -basically,your full target. That 20% can be a chunk ‘o change and I’ve locked in my 80% (sometimes I use 70/30 depending on price action. Same ole sound NckB method + a little conformation in these troubled waters. For what it’s worth

  42. Hi Nick,

    I liked ur system very much. I was using a break out system in gbp/us not very regular in profits.

    ur system is very good.. if failed for few months after 2 years…. its very normal…rather i would say its a very very good average.
    read ur ebook and waiting for d new one.

    best of luck with d changes which u r dong in ur system.

    Reg,

    Azy

  43. hey,

    Since long I think the correlation between US good news and yen pairs is getting better

    So I think watching good news and (pre) enter may be a good trade style for the coming 3 months

    Kill me if I’m wrong.

    D-Man

  44. Thanks to all contributors here except Hung Low of course. I am not surprised that is his name. Fits him properly.But for all the comments here, I was beginning to think that the market was after my money in a special set-up, maybe with the connivance of the CIA and the FBI probably with the MOSSAD also helping out to spy on my trades!Nick, I have been losing many trades but not because your system is not working.It is only due to the greed factor which is usually a problem with us, the newbies.When I checked back on s/r lines over a period of though, THEY ARE STILL WORKING. One simply needs to listen to price action minus greed, as far as people like me the new-bies are concerned.The professsionals like you and MH have said most of what needs to be said though.I appreciate you all, except for the HUNG LOW.