I am a completely amateur economist, however having been a trader for the better part of a decade I know more about economics than your average guy. This week I believe I can make a very strong case for a possible 0.5% rate cut by the BoE on Thursday as opposed to the expected 0.25% cut. I am not going to lay it out here because I am tired and its way too much typing. Maybe tomorrow I will throw together a paragraph or two on my reasoning for expecting a possible 0.5% cut. Anyway, a quarter percent cut should be priced in so I doubt it will have a major impact on GBP/JPY. If however we see a 0.5% cut it could have a huge impact on GBP and it could send any open trade completely in the negative (or maybe in the positive). For this reason I will not be entering any GBP/JPY trades a few hours before the release and if they do cut by 0.5% I will not trade for a few horus after.
I am always cautious around the GBP interest rate statement but it usually does not stop me from trading. I only hold back when I see the possibility of a surprise. This week we have the possibility of a surprise….. since I am an amateur economist you may wont to ignore this post but if it happens don’t say I didn’t warn you.