Midday Forex price action Analysis – 2016-10-04 (Setups on AUD/JPY and USD/CHF)

In today’s analysis I spot two potential setups, one on AUD/JPY and the other on USD/CHF. I am waiting for the 12 hour candle close before I decide on an entry level.

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9 Comments

  1. Omijie Ben Haruna

    hi Nick
    I enjoy watching your analysis, I want to ask you on the average how many trades do you take on monthly bases
    looking forward to hearing from you
    thanks
    Best regards
    Ben

    • Nick

      Personally I take 4-8 depending on the month. However, my strategy produces a lot more trades. I know several people taking my strategy who do 5-10 trades per week. It is not about how many trades there are, it’s about how many you want to enter.

  2. Ronnie Fisher

    Hi Nick,

    You are the only trader that I know that analysises currency pairs on so many timeframes. I do understand that the bigger timeframes give a more accurate direction of price. But I’m very concerned about traders like my self who has a small trading account and cannot risk too much,as it is said that if one wants to trade bigger timeframes then the trading account must be big.
    What timeframes should small trading account holders analyse and trade?

    Thanks,
    Ronnie

    • Nick

      The timeframes you trade are not affected by the size of your account. Your account size determines your max stop size. So if you want to risk 2% on a $500 account, and your smallest lot size gets you in at $0.10 per pip, your max stop is 100 pips.

      Sure large time frames can sometimes mean larger stops. However, this is certainly not always the case. Stop sizes are determined more by the pair you are trading than anything else. GBP/JPY has very large stops because it moves a lot, whereas EUR/USD is slower moving to the stops are smaller.

      The best way to grow your Forex account is to set up a direct debit, and put some money into that account weekly. For example, you could pay $10 per week into your Forex account. If your account started at $500 in January 2017, it would be $1,000 by January 2018, just from the money you add.

      However, more money also means you make more if you are profitable. So adding in extra money every week means your account will grow much faster.

  3. Niklas Gamborg

    Hey Nick! thx for all your precious time, it’s really a great help to me (and others i’m sure)!

    My question is: how do you determine which TF to take the trade from? i’ve demoed a few trades now

    and i just stayed on TF D1 (also cos that’s free on tradingview ;), but then comes the setups that forms

    on lower TF’s and then suddenly is gone on D1, any good tips on this? :)

    • Nick

      Well since I am watching all timeframes, I just enter the trade when it triggers usually. I prefer to enter trades on the higher timeframes, but if it triggers on the 6hr, and the setup hasn’t even formed on the D1, I take it on the 6hr.

      That being said, if my analysis shows the trade as risky, I will simply not trade it on any lower timeframe.

  4. linda

    I placed AUD/JPY on 8hr chart but it did not go well. I have been losing 4 trades in a row. There are hardly any trades recently. Losing 4 trades means losing since end of August. Most trades started to turn against me as soon as I entered.

    • Nick

      Okay, two issues here. Issue one is that you ignored the part of the analysis in which I said that I am waiting for the 12hr candle to close. I said that for a reason, the trade looked somewhat risky, so I wanted to see how it closed on a higher timeframe. You jumped the gun and entered too early. I actually said in the analysis that the trades do not look good on the 8hr.

      Issue two is that you are surprised that you are having a losing month and that you are in a losing streak. Losing streaks are normal in Forex, as they are in pretty much anything. Here is a screenshot of the losing streak calculator we use in Forex Mastermind.

      https://i.gyazo.com/b7d36a6fb1ebbc7086f33a79241eea50.png

      With a 60% win rate, losing 5 trades in a row is statistically normal. It is statistically possible to lose up to 9 trades in a row, that is just mathematics. You are well withing a statistically normal range for losing streaks.

      Trading Forex does not provide you with a stable monthly income. Some months you may make 20% of your account, some months 1%, and other months -8%. You won’t be making a specific % each month. Some months end negative. The only thing that matters is what you average out to at the end of the year.

  5. Mohamed

    I am not an expert but I think you can trade any timeframe with micro account, but it is all about the risk/rewards. for example if you trading a 12h timeframe and you risking 50pips against rewards 50-80 pips, this should not exceed more than 1-3% max of your account. make your calculation and you will get my point! :)

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