EUR/USD 4hr Chart Analysis
EUR/USD Last Week
EUR/USD made some interesting moves last week. Unfortunately no proper reversal trades formed on the Daily, 8hr or 4hr charts so I took no trades on EUR/USD last week.
EUR/USD started the week between the 1.3265-1.3285 resistance area and the 1.3190-1.3210 support area. It ranged between those two areas until Tuesday when it broke the 1.3190-1.3210 support and tumbled down to our next support at 1.3120-1.3140. EUR/USD spent the next few days stuck on top of the 1.3120-1.3140 support area. The Bears didn’t seem able to break the 1.3120-1.3140 but the Bulls were not able to repel the Bears either.
On Friday the Bears eventually broke through the 1.3120-1.3140 support but it did not make it down to the next support at 1.3040-1.3060.
Long Trades on EUR/USD This Week
Going long early in the week could be risky. Above last weeks close price of 1.3080 there is the 1.3100 psychological level providing resistance. Last week the 1.3100 did not seem to impact price at all so it may be ignored this week too. However, when it comes to psychological levels I never ignore them. It would be smart to keep an eye out for resistance at the 1.3100 and possible bearish reversals.
After the 1.3100 psychological level the Bulls will be confronted by the major resistance areas at 1.3120-1.3140. This area held very as support well last week so it could present a problem for the Bulls. If you are going long you should watch the 1.3120-1.3140 closely as it is a place in which Bears can enter the market.
After the 1.3120-1.3140 there seems to be a minor resistance level at 1.3160 which could cause a few problems. If the Bulls manage to cross all that resistance the next major resistance areas is at 1.3190-1.3210.
Short Trades on EUR/USD This Week
Short trades seem a little safer this week. The first major support area is below last weeks close is the 1.3040-1.3060. The Bears may have trouble breaking through this area and it held very well last time it was approached on the 18th of April.
If the Bears manage to push through the 1.3040-1.3060 they will then need to break the psychological level at 1.3000. The 1.3000 is a very significant psych level and it has held price back since mid February this year. The last attempt at the 1.3000 was on the 15th of March and it is what sparked off the major Bull rally we saw in March. So do not doubt that the 1.3000 is a very strong support level that can cause reversals.
If the Bears break the 1.3000 the next major support area is the 1.2950-1.2970.
Ranging on EUR/USD
As always ranges are possible, I will be looking out for ranges between the 1.3040-1.3060 support and the 1.3120-1.3140 resistance. The 1.3100 psychological level could get in the way of this range so watch out.
Summary
There is a lot less support and there is resistance this week so I would not be surprised to see some further moves down. That being said the 1.3000 level is extremely strong and it could hold the Bears back.
As always I will be looking for indecision forming on support and resistance. If the price reaches the 1.3000 I will definitely be looking for a reversal set-up at this level.